3 Things Bothering Me about the 2023 Cubs

First of all, I hope you and yours enjoyed a long weekend with your friends, family, and loved ones. 

If you planned on using the Cubs to help yourself enjoy the unofficial kick-off to summer, you chose un-wisely. 

I am out of ideas. I am out of answers. I am frustrated. If you follow the Cubs at all on Twitter, you can feel the pulse of a fanbase that has struggled to accept what has happened the last few season. For those keeping score at home:

2016 - Pure euphoria in the highest order. 

2017-2019 - Weird versions of euphoria with a collapse mixed in

2020 - Covid

2021 - Last right of the WS core

2022 - Looking for margins to go right to compete, blows up in their face

2023 - Better version of looking to compete at the margins...blowing up in their face. 

Here are 3 things that are bothering me that I just don't have clean answers for. Whether we deserve them as fans is something else entirely. 

1.) Money

I am guilty of coming to the defense of this team often. I think the Ricketts family gets a bit TOO much heat (ducks aggressively). They have invested heavily into the ballpark and the surrounding area. I realize these are profitable ventures for them. However, I struggle to believe they thought the team would be what it is when they made those decisions. Throw a global pandemic on top of that, and I imagine they have eaten their fair share of expenses and loan obligations.

Let's not confuse these comments with sympathy. They have a lot of money. I think these loan obligations have had significant affect on the budget for baseball operations. After 2016, things got weird in roster construction. Large free agent contracts disappeared, causing Theo to spend farm assets to supplement a then flawed roster. That lead to a fork in the road: 

a.) extend a core that did not develop to what we thought they were and hamstring yourself financially to older players

b.) Rebuild as quick as possible to diminish the outrage and affect on game day revenue. 

We didn't love the answer. I agree it was the correct one (besides Rizzo potentially). 

Fast forward to the 2022 offseason. Jed spent. A LOT. Dansby, Taillon, Belli, and others. I remember prior to signing Dansby, I was worried we would miss out on the SS FA class altogether. There were rumors early on, including wild rumors, of the Cubs trying to land multiple SS. I am curious if the Cubs were trying to get Xander AND Dansby, but the Padres shocked with the length. 

Based on recent comments from Jed, I think he regrets not spending a bit more on a few relievers. 

This team needs a front end Starter, and some slugging. 3B is potentially a hole as well. It doesn't matter who is out there besides one player: Ohtani. Jeff Passan said recently that he doesn't know why he would pick the Cubs based on how things are right now. I would really like this front office to prove him wrong. 

Will the money be there? Per sportrac, the Cubs have projected Salary obligations of $159M with a Luxury tax cap of $237M. They have money to spend. 

2.) Roster Construction

I don't know where to begin. The April start made me believe this team could challenge the Cardinals, and entertain a playoff spot. At the beginning of May, we all saw 4 game versus the lowly Nationals, followed by a revenge tour against the Marlins. The Cubs looked lifeless and lost, with several games of small villages LOB at the hands of Eric Hosmer. 

I understood signing Mancini and Hosmer as "Mervis Insurance." It cost league minimum to get Hosmer, as the Padres are still playing him big boy money. 

Hosmer was bad. When they signed him, he was bad. He played bad. All the "under the hood numbers" were...bad. Yet on the roster he remained, batting commonly higher than 7. 

There are several of these players that have been fixtures to the team this year. Nick Madrigal. Edwin Rios being on the roster while not playing. Luis Torrens breaking camp.

Reaction: 

The Cubs have not shown urgency in addressing these issues. This statement I understand is a matter of opinion, as I will agree I can hear the sirens of the "Small Sample Size Police." 

Logic:

When REALLY pushed to think about it, there are not an abundance of options that are currently on the 40 man. Again, this does not excuse the Front Office from getting creative. I heard a lot about the "roster crunch" this offseason, but the Cubs did very little in addressing this issue prior to Opening Day, giving them tougher decisions on so many fringe options (McKinstry, Torrens, Hosmer).

3.) Lineups

David Ross isn't acting alone. If he is, we need to potentially have another discussion. Tauchman batted 3rd the other day. On Monday, the Cubs rolled out 3 rights vs Taj Bradley, who has extreme splits that favor righties. The Cubs won that game with only hits from their right handed hitters (Point Cubs). 

This might highlight a bigger issue that has reared its head that I ignored a bit this offseason: organizational depth. Can we be mad at these lineups? Yes we can, but I counter with the following: What is the better option?

I think a sign of our times is a constant barrage of finger pointing and frustration on issues, without ever really presenting reasonable solutions. When looking at the Cubs Triple-A roster, there are not any SURE FIRE replacements there. Nelson Velazquez is an interesting option with ML at bats, but I can agree a bit with the development angle for him. In addition, the Cubs have so many positions locked down, it leaves very few spots to really experiment. 

The Lineup card starts everyday (when everyone is healthy) with the following LOCKS:

Happer, 

Belli, 

Seiya, 

Swanson, 

Nico. 

That leaves versatility and platooning options at 1B, 3B, C, and DH. That feels like a lot, but it truly isn't. Patrick Wisdom is great in stretches (April), but can get exposed (May). I have seen so many grumbles about Mastrobouni, but his versatility is what can spell Wisdom. I do have a gripe of the Cubs not giving Morel a set position to start at AAA this season, but his approach has wild variety in need of addressing, too. 

All in all, the Cubs problems are not necessarily simple. Maybe we were all to excited when they started the way they did. National pundits have said this team is still a year away, and these depth issues potentially confirm that hypothesis. The 2023 Chicago Cubs are not a bad team, but the 2023 fan base is tired of rebuilds and waiting. The pressure is on the Northside. Does the front office/ownership feel it?

A Shot of Jameson - 3 Up, 3 Down

Friday night in Philly was fun. Lots of runs. Vintage Stro back on the bump. I felt joy again.

The following 48 hours of Cubs baseball posed more question than answers, and honestly dampened my spirits. I had been thinking of this season as a roller coaster, with dips and drops around the .500 mark. 

BleacherNation captured those feelings in this tweet:

Then a secondary tweet caught my eye:

If it weren’t for the Athletics embodying the plot to Major League to get to Vegas, the Cubs would have had the worst record in the last month. I know there are a lot of one run loses in there, but it never felt that bad.

Let’s check in on where we are:

Record: 20-26; 5 GB on the NLC

Up next: A much needed home stand vs the suddenly hotter Mets, the Reds, and Rays. 

3 Up:

1. Morel: My lord, is he en fuego. He is a full on conflagration.  If it feels like he has homered in every game, HE PRETTY MUCH HAS. In 11 games, he has 8 HRs with a 1.352 OPS. A lot of things I am reading on Twitter seems to be playing “What If” on the timing of his call-up. In a team hungry for slugging, he is exactly what they need right now. There are so many uncertainties in baseball, I generally try not to entertain these scenarios. It is much harder in this stretch of play to ignore it. 
2. Lt. Dansby: I will admit when I am wrong. I was low on Dansby this off-season given the crop of available shortstops. I new his glove was solid, and fell in love with the idea of his gap power at the Friendly Confines. If you take a look around, Dansby has been likely the best signing of that class. In fact,  he is near the top of baseball in total WAR at 2.2.
3. Man of Steele:  Looking at that WAR list, you will notice ANOTHER Cub featured. Justin has been phenomenal this year. Per his Baseball Savant page, he is in the 96th percentile in Avg. Exit Velocity and 97th in HardHit%. Justin has given up so little hard contact, and continues to manage this with a fastball and a several shapes slider. 

3 Down:

1. Taillon: Generally I don't advocate for "fake injuries," but it might be time for Taillon to get some time to work on mechanics. The early results looked ok with time to normalize as he got stretched out. I think we are seeing some issues with getting back into the swing of things after the injury. His past 50 PA have see his wOBA sky rocket. He still measures with elite fastball and curve spin. I am curious if the Cubs can get him a rehab start or two in a controlled setting to fix the mechanics. This team is dead in the water if he can't get right. 
2. Bullpen: I will put myself in the camp of folks who felt the Cub's pitching infrastructure had turned a corner with the emergence of Hughes, Roberts, Thompson, and Steele last year. In addition, the Cubs have had so much success in revitalizing and flipping veterans (Kimbrel, Robertson, Givens). Currently, the twitter-verse is calling for David Ross' job based on his attempts to manage a bullpen that has struggled. As mentioned on On to Waveland, the Cubs are getting aggressive with pitching prospects by moving them to bullpen roles. There could be options on the way that will hopefully rights the ship. 
3. Wisdom: This is a Patrick Wisdom Stan account. I absolutely adore the guy and what he brings to the table. He started the season Morel-level hot, but has cooled off significantly. He is in a tough stretch dating to the road trip that saw his K% at 56% with 2 doubles to his name. Madrigal remains on this roster to protect Wisdom from tougher matchups. However, Madrigal has not really been a solid replacement. I noticed Mastrobouni got the start there on Sunday. It will be interesting to see how the Cubs manage Wisdom's plate appearances going forward to get him right. 

Lastly, here are 3 baseball related things worth checking out that I enjoyed:

1. On to Waveland: If you are not listening to this podcast, you need to as soon as possible. This is my favorite Cubs podcast out there, as I adore Brett, Sahadev, and Patrick. Add it to your rotation today.
2. MLB The Show: I am a big baseball gamer, and this year's MLB the Show has been a ton of fun. I recently started a Cub's franchise to try out the new scouting system. I am pretty impressed with the level of detail in finding the next star for your team. 
3. Northside Bound: When the Cubs MLB team makes me sad, I like to read up on prospects to cheer me up. This is the place to go. Give Greg a follow on twitter as well!

I am hoping things get back on track this week. The Cubs are super fortunate that they are in a division that is not strong, and a stretch of solid play can fix this. 

Houston We Have A Problem

Photo Credit

I have been a fan for as long as I can talk. Believe me, I have references. I have one podcast interview in which my Cub heart was on my sleeve. 

Something about last night's loss broke me. 

I think there are countless things that could have contributed to this issue: 

• A bullpen that hasn't been stellar. 

• Extremely odd losses after appearances by players giving up contact that 87% of the time would not be hits. 

• Oblique issues that have lead to our 3-4 hitter having Spring Training IN the season. (However, check out these poor baseball's in which he forgot they had families.)

            Number 1:

            Number 2:

• Offense that has disappeared (Matchups have been tough)

• Eric Hosmer and Madrigal occupying roster space

There needs to be changes as soon as possible. It is time to give Estrada, Burdi, and others looks in the Pen. Keegan Thompson needs time at Triple A to find his form. DFA Hosmer and get a bat that can play more often (Velazquez, Slaughter, Rios, etc.) I wouldn't ultimately feel so frustrated if I didn't spend so much of my energy buying into the vision of what they are trying to do. I have complained very little on spending. I have given Jed time to create his roster. I am realistic to what the shortcomings are. However, there is a Theo sized voice in the back of my mind that gets louder everyday saying the following: "Every season is sacred."

The Cubs have been abysmal in May, but no one in the NL central has run away. There is so much time. We are at the point where the need to stop wasting it. 

I hope my article on Sunday is much happier. 

Twin Killing

 I hope you had wonderful Mother's Day activities. Moms are such a big part of our world, so I hope you took care of them yesterday.

The Cubs, on the other hand, got taken care of...

Let's do a check in on the standings and a 3 up, 3 down of our beloved Northsiders:

Standings

Record: 19-21; 4 GB of the Brewers, Too early to look at WC standings

Run differential: +29

Interesting stats of note:

• Cubs are 2nd in the league in Team OBP at .340. Going into the 2023 season, I was concerned about the Cub's ability to Slug. The stats tell the story that are eyes are seeing: The Cubs are getting a lot of traffic on the bases, but are not getting a large amount of extra base hits. Slugging is at .425, which is good for 8th in the league. 
• Pitching stats tell a very similar story. After a...rough weekend on the mound, the Cubs are middle of the pack in team ERA. One thing I found interesting is the Cubs WHIP and BAA stats. They are a top 5 team in both, which would show pretty limited base runners. The difference with this Cub staff is the lack of strike outs. In a simple stats way of looking at this, the more randomness of a ball in play introduced vs a Strike out, the higher likelihood of runs, hits, action. 

If I was honest with myself to start this season, this teams lack of power pitching and power bats was a concern for a legitimate division run. I am very interested if these stats will improve in any way, or if this is the teams identity. 

3 Up...

1. Christopher Morel: There is no reason for him to go back down once Nico is healthy. He OBLITERATED 2 baseballs this weekend, and is a plug-n-play glove. His defense is serviceable all over the field and has a plus-arm. 
2. Seiya Suzuki: Seiya did not get the benefit of a full spring this year with the oblique issue. He came into camp look like a beast, having added muscle and some pop in early games. He has been pretty solid with Hard Hit rate, with launch angle being an issue. It was nice to see some XBH this weekend. He had a nice series with 1.083 OPS for the weekend with a 108MPH line drive HR on Sunday. Hopefully this is a sign of some more slug to come. 
3. Drew Smyly: That Unicorn Curveball is a thing of beauty. He is a quality start machine. Every competitive team needs a bunch of innings eaters, and he has been more than that. Based on this barrel % chart, he has been hard to square up. (Not quite Justin Steele ELITE, but still great)

3 down...

1. Holy strikeouts, Batman!: The Cubs faced a tough test with Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan this weekend, who have been excellent for the Twinkies so far this year. They did a solid job of getting Sonny's pitch count up on Friday, but the overall results were not great. Cubs are mid-pack in strikeout rate at 22.6%. However, they struck out at a 30.4% clip this weekend. Not ideal. 
2. Hayden Wesneski: I was curious how the Cubs were going to find starts for Kyle Hendricks after his rehab outings (Another good one for him at Iowa yesterday) Hayden was the clear 5th starter out of camp, but really needs some runway at Iowa to develop a 3rd pitch. His fastball command has not been as great at times, and the hard hit rate signals some pitch sequencing and location issues. 
3. Roster construction: I am growing tired of a sub-optimal roster. Looking at the standings, the Cubs have opportunities to sneak into the playoffs with the right stretch of play, as it is only May. HOWEVER, I see some opportunities to maximize this roster. It is time to bring some of the fun arms with high velo up from Iowa (Cam Sanders, Manny Rodriguez) to replace Boxberger at minimum. Finding at bats for Eric Hosmer should stop. Nick Madrigal should not be platooning Patrick Wisdom. When Nico comes back, that should be Morel. I get we need some more opportunities for Barnhart, but I was super impressed with Amaya in his tryout. He had a REALLY nice day at Iowa yesterday (Look at the box score linked earlier.)

Here is hoping for a better week. Cubbies in Houston starting tonight. 

3 Candors with CandidCubs on 5/11/2023

Hello! It has been a long time! 

I have found as the Cubs have returned to relevance, and my journey into baseball data have increased my need for a place for my thoughts. Here are a few things I am getting "candid" on:

• BleacherNation (my favorite Cubs content and it is not close) has a great article about their thoughts on Cubs broadcasts on Marquee.  I won't rehash what Michael discusses, but I think it is a great starting point on some of the gripes I have with the network. I still think the biggest issue is access, which I think will be solved in good time. 

• Is Justin Steele this teams ace? The argument can be made between him and Stroman in the early part of 2023, but Justin has felt like the classic "stopper." This is likely due to run support, as Stroman hasn't won his last 3 starts even with logging 3 QS. Boog/Girardi brought up an interest point on Justin Steele last evening: As a LHP, he seems to not face many lefties. I looked into that this morning and saw the sample size is pretty small, but they may be on to something. Justin has great Fastball command and is able to manipulate his pitches to get varying movement. His barrel rate is still elite, but in 2023, Lefties are hitting him slightly better. Recency bias of lefties in St. Louis' lineup squaring him up has me curious if his glove side run is harder to control. It will be something to see if there is an adjustments by the league. Justin hasn't looked totally locked in and the results are still excellent. I am sure the command on the arm-side fastball will be something he masters as he sees more lefties.

• I love having Christopher Morel back. His attitude, his bat, his versatility. *Chefs Kiss.* I think the Cubs are very lucky this division is not strong and have been able to give run to Hosmer and other veterans to get an idea of Roster construction moving forward. Yes, I did link Hosmer's Baseball Savant page. Yes, you should go look at why some line items are blue. Yes, you should see the concerning large amount of work that looks consistently bad. I will stop there, as I am hoping this is sorting itself out. 

- CandidCubs