Twin Killing

 I hope you had wonderful Mother's Day activities. Moms are such a big part of our world, so I hope you took care of them yesterday.

The Cubs, on the other hand, got taken care of...

Let's do a check in on the standings and a 3 up, 3 down of our beloved Northsiders:

Standings

Record: 19-21; 4 GB of the Brewers, Too early to look at WC standings

Run differential: +29

Interesting stats of note:

• Cubs are 2nd in the league in Team OBP at .340. Going into the 2023 season, I was concerned about the Cub's ability to Slug. The stats tell the story that are eyes are seeing: The Cubs are getting a lot of traffic on the bases, but are not getting a large amount of extra base hits. Slugging is at .425, which is good for 8th in the league. 
• Pitching stats tell a very similar story. After a...rough weekend on the mound, the Cubs are middle of the pack in team ERA. One thing I found interesting is the Cubs WHIP and BAA stats. They are a top 5 team in both, which would show pretty limited base runners. The difference with this Cub staff is the lack of strike outs. In a simple stats way of looking at this, the more randomness of a ball in play introduced vs a Strike out, the higher likelihood of runs, hits, action. 

If I was honest with myself to start this season, this teams lack of power pitching and power bats was a concern for a legitimate division run. I am very interested if these stats will improve in any way, or if this is the teams identity. 

3 Up...

1. Christopher Morel: There is no reason for him to go back down once Nico is healthy. He OBLITERATED 2 baseballs this weekend, and is a plug-n-play glove. His defense is serviceable all over the field and has a plus-arm. 
2. Seiya Suzuki: Seiya did not get the benefit of a full spring this year with the oblique issue. He came into camp look like a beast, having added muscle and some pop in early games. He has been pretty solid with Hard Hit rate, with launch angle being an issue. It was nice to see some XBH this weekend. He had a nice series with 1.083 OPS for the weekend with a 108MPH line drive HR on Sunday. Hopefully this is a sign of some more slug to come. 
3. Drew Smyly: That Unicorn Curveball is a thing of beauty. He is a quality start machine. Every competitive team needs a bunch of innings eaters, and he has been more than that. Based on this barrel % chart, he has been hard to square up. (Not quite Justin Steele ELITE, but still great)

3 down...

1. Holy strikeouts, Batman!: The Cubs faced a tough test with Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan this weekend, who have been excellent for the Twinkies so far this year. They did a solid job of getting Sonny's pitch count up on Friday, but the overall results were not great. Cubs are mid-pack in strikeout rate at 22.6%. However, they struck out at a 30.4% clip this weekend. Not ideal. 
2. Hayden Wesneski: I was curious how the Cubs were going to find starts for Kyle Hendricks after his rehab outings (Another good one for him at Iowa yesterday) Hayden was the clear 5th starter out of camp, but really needs some runway at Iowa to develop a 3rd pitch. His fastball command has not been as great at times, and the hard hit rate signals some pitch sequencing and location issues. 
3. Roster construction: I am growing tired of a sub-optimal roster. Looking at the standings, the Cubs have opportunities to sneak into the playoffs with the right stretch of play, as it is only May. HOWEVER, I see some opportunities to maximize this roster. It is time to bring some of the fun arms with high velo up from Iowa (Cam Sanders, Manny Rodriguez) to replace Boxberger at minimum. Finding at bats for Eric Hosmer should stop. Nick Madrigal should not be platooning Patrick Wisdom. When Nico comes back, that should be Morel. I get we need some more opportunities for Barnhart, but I was super impressed with Amaya in his tryout. He had a REALLY nice day at Iowa yesterday (Look at the box score linked earlier.)

Here is hoping for a better week. Cubbies in Houston starting tonight.