The trade deadline is coming and it is one of my favorite times of year, regardless of the Cubs standing. Every year, a big name or two lights up a market like the NYC Christmas tree as speculation and scenarios engulf in a conflagration of euphoria, jealousy, and daydreams. I very much like taking part.
Trades and their excitement are good for baseball. This year, the best player on the planet could become available. The Angels have suffered many injuries and are beginning to fall out of the West race
Trades to look at...I guess:
Machado to the Dodgers, 2018
In 2018, the world new Manny was not going to be an Oriole. There was not much public discussion of traction on a massive extension, and doubt spread given the Orioles recent play and lack of a track record committing the level of money needed for Manny.
Player Value:
Machado in 2018 was having an EXCELLENT first half. The 25 year old had a .315 BA, .963 OPS with 24 HRs and 65 RBI.
Manny started playing in 2012 and had already had 3 top 10 MVP finishes, 2 gold gloves, and was just selected to his 4th All Star game.
Manny currently has 53.5 WAR through 12 seasons of play, tied as the 8th most valuable active player
Prospect Package:
1.) Yusniel Diaz, OF (11), 20 years old
2.) Dean Kremer, RHP, 22 years old
3.) Rylan Bannon, 3B , 22 years old
4.) Zach Pop, RHP, 22 years old
5.) Breyvic Valera, 3B (21), 26 years old
At the time, that seemed like a huge package for a playoff piece. Fangraphs had them at 11, 21 in the top 23, with the others unrated.
New Contract:
Manny Machado did not stay in LA, selecting the surprising (at the time) 11 year, $350M offering from San Diego. That "CBA" math AAV turned out to be a sweet deal, giving him plenty of ammo for his opt out/extension deal from this spring.
Juan Soto to the Padres, 2022
The Nationals were unable to pull of an extension as talks broke down with the player. Even with a few years left until free agency, it had become clear it was time to move on. The fear of no return, as they got with Bryce Harper, loomed large.
Player Value:
What is a comp for a guy under 23 with the seasons he had put up? "Childish Bambino" was 19 when he was called up, and put up an amazing rookie campaign, coming in 2nd in ROY honors to some guy named Ronald Acuna Jr. He has a CAREER OBP of .423 with a CAREER OPS of .943. In that short time, he was a 3 time Silver Slugger, 3 time Top-10 MVP vote getter, with 2 All Star Game elections.
As mentioned, Juan had 2 1/2 years of control when dealt. His deal had the expiring contract of Josh Bell as well.
Prospect Package:
1.) CJ Abrams, SS, 20 years Old (1 in Padres, 9 in MLB)
2.) Mackenzie Gore, LHP, 22 years old (4 in Padres)
3.) Robert Hassell III, OF (2 in Padres, 21 in MLB)
4.) James Wood, OF (3 in Padres)
5.) Jarlin Susana, RHP (14 in Padres)
6.) Luke Voit, 1B, MLB
This package is huge, and absolutely needed given the talent involved. Leave it to AJ Preller to make deals. I am sure this still has it's naysayers, but the large amount of high end talent is hard to ignore. They received two MLB caliper players so far, with Wood, Hassell III, and Jarlin still top 10 organizational talent in recent prospect rankings. Wood and Hassell still fall on Top 150 propects in baseball as well. (Fangraphs)
CC Sabathia to Milwaukee, 2008
This trade really sticks out to me as getting the most bang for your prospect buck. CC was HIM (I feel old typing that) after the trade. He was having a good year in 2008, but really took it to another level in the NL.
Player Value:
Take a look at these splits:
With Cleveland: 6-8, 18 Starts, 3.83 ERA, 122.1 IP, 123 SOs
With Milwaukee: 11-2, 17 Starts, 1.65 ERA, 130.2 IP, 128 SOs
Let's not forget he threw 7 complete games, 3 of them shut outs. Unbelievable.
Prior to that, he was "just" a 27 year old with 4 15+ win seasons, 3 All Star games, and a 2007 Cy Young award.
Prospect Package:
1.) Zach Jackson (NR)
2.) Matt LaPorta, LF, 23 years old (2 in Brewers)
3.) Rob Bryson (11 in Brewers)
4.) PTBNL who turned into Michael Brantley (NR)
The story of this trade is a typical baseball trade. LaPorta garnered all of the attention given the pedigree at the time. He never panned out, only getting 967 MLB ABs. The irony is how great the Michael Brantley acquisition looked.
A note: Baseball is weird. Baseball is hard. I always try to remember that everyone involved in these deals have both more minor league and major league at bats than I do.
New Contract:
CC never played for the Brew Crew again, signing a 7 year, $161M deal with the Yankees after that season.
Justin Verlander to Houston, 2017
This trade makes my heart hurt, as he really wanted to be here in 2017. Oh, what could have been.
Player Value:
I was curious how this guy would age. I am sure the Cubs were as well. However, this guy has been a stud, and continued to do so for Houston, trash cans and no trash cans.
Up to the age 34 seasons, Verlander had won ROY, Cy Young and MVP in 2011, then a pedestrian 7 additional top 11 Cy Young finishes and 4 MVP Top 20 finishes.
Prospect Package:
1.) Daz Cameron, OF, 20 years Old (10 in Astros)
2.) Franklin Perez, RHP, 19 years Old (3 in Astros)
3.) Jake Rogers, C, 21 years old (NR in Astros)
Daz has not panned out. Jake Rogers is a back-up catcher. Franklin never pitched in the MLB. Pretty high cost for the Tigers who wanted to rebuild and shed salary.
New Contract:
The Astros went on to take the remaining 2 1/2 years of his deal, with the Tigers throwing in $8M of the total $28M owed in the last 2 full seasons. Since, he made $81M on a deal with the Astros for 3 years. This offseason, he signed a 2 year, $86M contract with the Mets, who recently were fitted for rings for winning the Offseason.
The Cubs Package for Ohtani
There is not an exact comp. Ohtani the most special player to play in this generation. The length of time he will be able to do this will redefine expectations and set unreachable bars for the rest of time.
These sentences are not ridiculous or hyperbole. We simply have not seen this before. Here is how I am assessing the market for Ohtani.
The Market
Buster Olney is proclaiming the Yankees will do whatever it takes to get him at the deadline. I don't see that making a ton of sense. My "logical brain" says an in-season move like this makes the most sense for teams in search of the "final piece" to jump their strong roster. My comp is the Cubs getting Chapman in 2016. The cost was high, but the piece was perfect.
Looking at the playoff teams right now, the Rays, Orioles, Rangers, Astros, Braves, Reds, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Giants are teams with current records and a place in the standings that would see a huge jump in World Series futures by adding Ohtani. Of these teams, 6 have top 10 farm systems per Fangraphs.
Of that group, I would probably rank the Dodgers and Giants as the most dangerous to re-sign him post trade. The Giants famously almost signed everyone this offseason, including Aaron Judge's brother, Arson:
first-ballot Hall of Fame tweet just dropped pic.twitter.com/G8MVkhr89Y
— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) December 6, 2022
The Cubs would need to beat packages put together by these west coast squads. I understand the timing isn't wonderful competition wise for the Cubs, but the negotiation advantage is worth the price (if it is 100% the intent of this Front Office to sign him).
The Package
Looking at the examples above, it seems like a good place to start is with two top 10 organization prospects (with MLB rank) for Hitter Ohtani. Pitcher Ohtani would add 2 more prospects. The Angels could try to swing a deal for some younger ML talent to supplement Trout with, as their financials may limit big swings in free agency. This organization is also hungry for pitching, which has seemed like their achilles heal in the Trout years. An avenue worth exploring is any opportunity to help the Angels unload a large contract. Specifically, Anthony Rendon. Ironically, this could help the Cubs 3B issues in the short term.
Names I float as the Cubs
James Triantos (2 in Cubs): 20 years old at Single A. Walks more than he strikes out. High OBP and contact.
Christopher Morel (MLB): I love Morel. Currently, he is positionless as he works out some defensive issues. His value can come from versatility. The Angels may value a player that has seen success in the Majors. This does reduce some risk on the return.
Kevin Alcantara, (4 in Cubs): 21 years old at Single A as well. The Jaguar is exciting, but contracts lock up the Cubs outfield for a few years. This is not a problem until it is a problem. The logic here is the surplus and the rank.
Hayden Wesneski (MLB): Wesneski has had some decent time in the Majors. It has become apparent he needs a bit more command on a 3rd pitch to help neutralize lefties. When the sweeper/slider is working, he is great. He could start in that rotation ASAP.
The Deal
All in, the Cubs should only do this if they can negotiate and sign a contract. Their World Series window is not now, but landing a guy like this when Marquee is adding in-market streaming, Wrigley is opening a sports book, and marketing is beginning for 2024 feels extremely advantageous for business folk and fans alike.
What do you think?
