3 Things Bothering Me about the 2023 Cubs

First of all, I hope you and yours enjoyed a long weekend with your friends, family, and loved ones. 

If you planned on using the Cubs to help yourself enjoy the unofficial kick-off to summer, you chose un-wisely. 

I am out of ideas. I am out of answers. I am frustrated. If you follow the Cubs at all on Twitter, you can feel the pulse of a fanbase that has struggled to accept what has happened the last few season. For those keeping score at home:

2016 - Pure euphoria in the highest order. 

2017-2019 - Weird versions of euphoria with a collapse mixed in

2020 - Covid

2021 - Last right of the WS core

2022 - Looking for margins to go right to compete, blows up in their face

2023 - Better version of looking to compete at the margins...blowing up in their face. 

Here are 3 things that are bothering me that I just don't have clean answers for. Whether we deserve them as fans is something else entirely. 

1.) Money

I am guilty of coming to the defense of this team often. I think the Ricketts family gets a bit TOO much heat (ducks aggressively). They have invested heavily into the ballpark and the surrounding area. I realize these are profitable ventures for them. However, I struggle to believe they thought the team would be what it is when they made those decisions. Throw a global pandemic on top of that, and I imagine they have eaten their fair share of expenses and loan obligations.

Let's not confuse these comments with sympathy. They have a lot of money. I think these loan obligations have had significant affect on the budget for baseball operations. After 2016, things got weird in roster construction. Large free agent contracts disappeared, causing Theo to spend farm assets to supplement a then flawed roster. That lead to a fork in the road: 

a.) extend a core that did not develop to what we thought they were and hamstring yourself financially to older players

b.) Rebuild as quick as possible to diminish the outrage and affect on game day revenue. 

We didn't love the answer. I agree it was the correct one (besides Rizzo potentially). 

Fast forward to the 2022 offseason. Jed spent. A LOT. Dansby, Taillon, Belli, and others. I remember prior to signing Dansby, I was worried we would miss out on the SS FA class altogether. There were rumors early on, including wild rumors, of the Cubs trying to land multiple SS. I am curious if the Cubs were trying to get Xander AND Dansby, but the Padres shocked with the length. 

Based on recent comments from Jed, I think he regrets not spending a bit more on a few relievers. 

This team needs a front end Starter, and some slugging. 3B is potentially a hole as well. It doesn't matter who is out there besides one player: Ohtani. Jeff Passan said recently that he doesn't know why he would pick the Cubs based on how things are right now. I would really like this front office to prove him wrong. 

Will the money be there? Per sportrac, the Cubs have projected Salary obligations of $159M with a Luxury tax cap of $237M. They have money to spend. 

2.) Roster Construction

I don't know where to begin. The April start made me believe this team could challenge the Cardinals, and entertain a playoff spot. At the beginning of May, we all saw 4 game versus the lowly Nationals, followed by a revenge tour against the Marlins. The Cubs looked lifeless and lost, with several games of small villages LOB at the hands of Eric Hosmer. 

I understood signing Mancini and Hosmer as "Mervis Insurance." It cost league minimum to get Hosmer, as the Padres are still playing him big boy money. 

Hosmer was bad. When they signed him, he was bad. He played bad. All the "under the hood numbers" were...bad. Yet on the roster he remained, batting commonly higher than 7. 

There are several of these players that have been fixtures to the team this year. Nick Madrigal. Edwin Rios being on the roster while not playing. Luis Torrens breaking camp.

Reaction: 

The Cubs have not shown urgency in addressing these issues. This statement I understand is a matter of opinion, as I will agree I can hear the sirens of the "Small Sample Size Police." 

Logic:

When REALLY pushed to think about it, there are not an abundance of options that are currently on the 40 man. Again, this does not excuse the Front Office from getting creative. I heard a lot about the "roster crunch" this offseason, but the Cubs did very little in addressing this issue prior to Opening Day, giving them tougher decisions on so many fringe options (McKinstry, Torrens, Hosmer).

3.) Lineups

David Ross isn't acting alone. If he is, we need to potentially have another discussion. Tauchman batted 3rd the other day. On Monday, the Cubs rolled out 3 rights vs Taj Bradley, who has extreme splits that favor righties. The Cubs won that game with only hits from their right handed hitters (Point Cubs). 

This might highlight a bigger issue that has reared its head that I ignored a bit this offseason: organizational depth. Can we be mad at these lineups? Yes we can, but I counter with the following: What is the better option?

I think a sign of our times is a constant barrage of finger pointing and frustration on issues, without ever really presenting reasonable solutions. When looking at the Cubs Triple-A roster, there are not any SURE FIRE replacements there. Nelson Velazquez is an interesting option with ML at bats, but I can agree a bit with the development angle for him. In addition, the Cubs have so many positions locked down, it leaves very few spots to really experiment. 

The Lineup card starts everyday (when everyone is healthy) with the following LOCKS:

Happer, 

Belli, 

Seiya, 

Swanson, 

Nico. 

That leaves versatility and platooning options at 1B, 3B, C, and DH. That feels like a lot, but it truly isn't. Patrick Wisdom is great in stretches (April), but can get exposed (May). I have seen so many grumbles about Mastrobouni, but his versatility is what can spell Wisdom. I do have a gripe of the Cubs not giving Morel a set position to start at AAA this season, but his approach has wild variety in need of addressing, too. 

All in all, the Cubs problems are not necessarily simple. Maybe we were all to excited when they started the way they did. National pundits have said this team is still a year away, and these depth issues potentially confirm that hypothesis. The 2023 Chicago Cubs are not a bad team, but the 2023 fan base is tired of rebuilds and waiting. The pressure is on the Northside. Does the front office/ownership feel it?

3 Candors with CandidCubs on 5/11/2023

Hello! It has been a long time! 

I have found as the Cubs have returned to relevance, and my journey into baseball data have increased my need for a place for my thoughts. Here are a few things I am getting "candid" on:

• BleacherNation (my favorite Cubs content and it is not close) has a great article about their thoughts on Cubs broadcasts on Marquee.  I won't rehash what Michael discusses, but I think it is a great starting point on some of the gripes I have with the network. I still think the biggest issue is access, which I think will be solved in good time. 

• Is Justin Steele this teams ace? The argument can be made between him and Stroman in the early part of 2023, but Justin has felt like the classic "stopper." This is likely due to run support, as Stroman hasn't won his last 3 starts even with logging 3 QS. Boog/Girardi brought up an interest point on Justin Steele last evening: As a LHP, he seems to not face many lefties. I looked into that this morning and saw the sample size is pretty small, but they may be on to something. Justin has great Fastball command and is able to manipulate his pitches to get varying movement. His barrel rate is still elite, but in 2023, Lefties are hitting him slightly better. Recency bias of lefties in St. Louis' lineup squaring him up has me curious if his glove side run is harder to control. It will be something to see if there is an adjustments by the league. Justin hasn't looked totally locked in and the results are still excellent. I am sure the command on the arm-side fastball will be something he masters as he sees more lefties.

• I love having Christopher Morel back. His attitude, his bat, his versatility. *Chefs Kiss.* I think the Cubs are very lucky this division is not strong and have been able to give run to Hosmer and other veterans to get an idea of Roster construction moving forward. Yes, I did link Hosmer's Baseball Savant page. Yes, you should go look at why some line items are blue. Yes, you should see the concerning large amount of work that looks consistently bad. I will stop there, as I am hoping this is sorting itself out. 

- CandidCubs

 

 

 

State of the Cubbies - 5.10.16

I have been a Cubs fan my whole life (26 years and some change). I grew up during an era of the team in which I have seen more playoff births then most groups of die hards, but the learning curve of heartbreak was much quicker. '98, '03, '07,'08, and '15. Considering a ball club that has only seen 17 total playoff appearances in THEIR ENTIRE EXISTANCE, I should consider myself spoiled. 

I was in college for the Lou Pinella era. These two seasons were the height of my Cub delirium. I believed in curses, goats, Bartmans, etc. I took those playoff drubbings pretty hard. I started to feel hopeless. 

Then the ray of light that is the Theo Epstein era. Theo changed the way I looked at success and sustainability. While the Cardinals implored a model of player development and in-house solutions during the 2000's, I blindly was frustrated by the lack of "big splash' signings that were involving the North Siders. I had believed what the old regime wanted me to beleive: Success can be bought. 

I watched the Epstein era teams (pre-playoffs) with a new intensity. I was constantly looking for lightening in the bottle players to bring back exciting prospects to expedite the organizational growth that Theo/Jed sold like a beautiful dream. 

Last year was fun. I love the mantra that it was "a year early" since they came out of no where. The talent was there (or coming), but would they put it together?

Expectations could not be higher for this season. Everyone and their mother (Happy Mother's day to all the moms, btw) has picked this team to be a World Series contender. I have aged with the team and have found bliss in the "Try not to Suck" idea. 

Then they started like this. 24-6. Best start since 1907 (I believe a Chicago team won the World Series that year...). The hype train has turned into the hype bullet train. 

Starting Pitching - Lester, Hammel, Arrieta have 3 of the top 5 era's in the game. They are on a staff that has yet to have a starter to throw less than 5 innings this season. Jake has 1 no-hitter, and his command is not even close to what it was last year just yet. (Jake's walk rate per 9 is at 3, compared to 1.9 last season).

Offense - ON BASE. ON BASE. ON BASE. If you look up and down this line up, there are 1 or 2 batting averages that jump out as solid (Rizzo had a slow start due to lousy BABIP, Heyward has been hampered with a wrist injury). However, this team continues to take its walks. Hits can come in go in a game where failure happens to the greats 70% of the time, but approach stays constant. The drop in strike out rate so far in Russell and Bryant has been unreal. The Cubs were last in the majors last year, improving to a shocking degree. 

It is exciting to be on the North Side this year. Stay calm and enjoy the ride. As Joe Maddon would say "It's a beautiful thing, man."

Home Opener - An opener of my perspective

This is the view of my section. I am so excited to sitting in those green beauties once again (Well, 2 rows closer than last year 😍). 

I don't know if it is just me, but I am trying really hard not to overdue my excitement just yet. Lots of expectations, predictions,  etc. No, I am not selling out to some curse theory, hoax, hex, or such either. As I have gotten older, I have grown more in love with this game, while growing in understanding the nuances that make it go. With a grueling 162 game season ahead, so many things can happen. 

I love the early season storylines of who is good, who is bad. I had a a conversation this past Friday with a Cardinals fan who was POUNDING the panic button as his team stumbled in their opening series to the Pirates. Trevor Story is on pace to hit over 250 Home Runs. Currently, I am watching the "rebuilding" Reds no-hit our heroes in the bottom of the 5th. 

What I am trying to say, make sure to take some time to enjoy the present. Baseball is a beautiful game with nuances that take a detail mind to find. So let's enjoy this ride. Oh, and Go Cubs! 
 

The Beginning

The day most Cub fans have been waiting for is finally here: Javier Baez is coming to the MLB!

My immediate reaction is similar to this child here: http://youtu.be/pFlcqWQVVuU 

After a horrendous start, Baez has really turn it on, bringing his average up to .260  with 23 bombs. His upside is known. He is the prospect every fan has come to know. The worry is balancing realistic expectation and hype. 

Baez is a true talent, but there are some trends that need to be addressed in order to temper the excitement:

- Baez has a career MiLB K ratio of 28%, which is still 3% higher than being consider 'awful' (http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/rate-stats/). Baez has a quick and powerful swing, but this comes with some consequences. It would be fair to say he could struggle after the initial call up. For this reason, it is good to call him up now to get the test drive out of the way. He has shown the resilience to make adjustments and work hard. 

- Career MiLB fielding percentage of .944. For a comparison, Starlin Castro has a career percentage of .963. The glove leaves something to be desired, but Second base may be a great place to stick him. 

- Javy is 21 YEARS OLD. If he doesn't not look like Dereck Jeter in his first month, give him a break. Players are not considered in their prime until their late 20's. Mike Trout is the exception, not the rule.

Now that the ground rules are set, it is time for is to enjoy the clear start of the next stage of Cubs Baseball. Welcome, and enjoy. Oh, let's also start watching the #BAEZBOMBS 

The "Olt" of Lightening They Need

7 days. 7 days from today I return to a magical world that is second to none: Baseball season. With the sounds of post-fantasy draft discussions and the stress of final spring cuts upon us, I need to get something off of my chest that has been weighing on me all spring: Mike Olt should be the Cubs' Opening Day third baseman.

If you have read my tweets during the spring, this is not a shocking revelation. My love fest for Olt started this offseason. I have drooled over the metrics of a 2012 untouchable from the Rangers. I have day dreamed about the protection he can provide to a maturing Rizzo. Mumblings of being a "competitive" team have creeped into my conversations. But all Roses have thorns. And all fans have Rose-colored glasses.

Olt is 25 years old and in a different conversation than "The Core." He has seen success in Triple A. He has seen (or not seen...because of last year's eye issues) struggles in Triple A. He has experienced all that needs to be experienced on the internal Theo/Hoyer Report Card. 

Back in July 2012, when the Cubs were in the middle of a losing season, Theo was taking calls about the price for Ryan Dempster. When the Rangers came calling, Olt was UNTOUCHABLE. Olt hit 28Hrs in 354 ABs with a solid .579 Slugging. The Cubs have seen a glimpse of that potential this Spring. Olt has been Solid with a .273 average with 5Hrs in 44 ABs. 

Let's be honest here. The Cubs will struggle to compete this season. As I have stated in many blogs, the future is bright. But the time is now for Olt. I see the argument to use Valbuena given his spring performance (.294, 6Hrs), but Olt is a whole different level. Olt is a .280, 25-30HR guy that solidifies a lineup that is starving for a solid 4. He looks rusty at 3B, but countless scouts believe he will be an above average fielder. Bring the kid up, have him solidify an order that is begging for production. Let's lock up the revolving door 3B has become Post-Aramis. Given the Cubs immediate situaton, what is the worst that can happen? He may be just the "Olt" this team needs...

-CC

Love is in the Javier

CRACK. The sound of sweet lumber as another now dubbed 'Baez Bomb' leaves the yard. 

It's hard not to get excited this spring. To us Cub fans, we are experiencing what I call the Christmas Eve phenomenon. We all remember Christmas Eve as a child. It was a day of wonderous anticipation, of impossible dreams, of excitement. We spent so much time building up the joys of Christmas and fantasizing about what 'Santa' could have under the tree. Sometimes our expectations would even trump the festivities of the actual day.

Flash forward from your youth  to March 2014. It is Spring Training, the 'Christmas Eve' of baseball season. No matter how many seasons you have followed or glimpses of success you have seen ('69, '84, '89, '98, '03, '07, '08), we all are watching one thing: the "Core."

You would have to be living under a rock to not have heard the countless sitings of Soler, Bryant, Almora, and Baez. This year at spring camp, we are getting a glimpse of most this group. That concept itself pays for the price of admission. These four players have become the coatracks for my dreams of a post-rebuild team. But let me get to the point.

Javier Baez should not break camp with the major league club. I'm sorry Cub fans, I know we are hungry. I know we have seen in a small sample so far what this kid can do (.417, 2 HRs this spring, .282, 37 HRs combined in A/AA). The fact of the matter regardless of service time issues, spring training performance, etc; the kid should see some Triple A. 

With some promising progress from Olt, an interesting option in Bonifacio, and a chance at redemption for Barney, there just is not any room right now. Let Barney prove his worth as a caliber second baseman. Let's see what Olt can do at third. If Barney shows a turnaround at the plate and Baez is scorching AAA, Barney has become a chip to get more arms for the rebuild. If Olt doesn't develop at third, then Baez is an option to take those duties. The Cubs still need to see what kind of things they have on the major league roster. This approach will only be beneficial for the team as a whole.

Unfortunately, the addition of Baez to this lineup right now does not make the Cubs a playoff team. Let the team execute the plan they have for the team they have on the field. If Baez produces at Triple A, then bring him up as an early call up to potentially invigorate an offense in May/June. Let him get everyday at bats to work on his opposite field driving (which has looked better) and his plate discipline(147 SO in 514 ABs in '13). Put him in a place where he will see regular at-bats and everyday playing time to work on his glove(44 errors, .932 fielding % in '13).

 It's almost 'Christmas' Cub fans, and Santa has Bryant, Baez, and maybe a few other surprises as gifts. It stinks sitting here on Christmas Eve dreaming of what coming. But sometimes, even though it kills us, these things are still worth the wait.

-CC

http://youtu.be/o91s0broyZ4