What would an Ohtani trade to the Cubs look like?

 

The trade deadline is coming and it is one of my favorite times of year, regardless of the Cubs standing. Every year, a big name or two lights up a market like the NYC Christmas tree as speculation and scenarios engulf in a conflagration of euphoria, jealousy, and daydreams. I very much like taking part. 

Trades and their excitement are good for baseball. This year, the best player on the planet could become available. The Angels have suffered many injuries and are beginning to fall out of the West race

Trades to look at...I guess:

Machado to the Dodgers, 2018

 

In 2018, the world new Manny was not going to be an Oriole. There was not much public discussion of traction on a massive extension, and doubt spread given the Orioles recent play and lack of a track record committing the level of money needed for Manny. 

Player Value:

Machado in 2018 was having an EXCELLENT first half. The 25 year old had a .315 BA, .963 OPS with 24 HRs and 65 RBI. 

Manny started playing in 2012 and had already had 3 top 10 MVP finishes, 2 gold gloves, and was just selected to his 4th All Star game. 

Manny currently has 53.5 WAR through 12 seasons of play, tied as the 8th most valuable active player

Prospect Package:

1.) Yusniel Diaz, OF (11), 20 years old

2.) Dean Kremer, RHP, 22 years old

3.) Rylan Bannon, 3B , 22 years old

4.) Zach Pop, RHP, 22 years old

5.) Breyvic Valera, 3B (21), 26 years old

At the time, that seemed like a huge package for a playoff piece. Fangraphs had them at 11, 21 in the top 23, with the others unrated. 

New Contract:

Manny Machado did not stay in LA, selecting the surprising (at the time) 11 year, $350M offering from San Diego. That "CBA" math AAV turned out to be a sweet deal, giving him plenty of ammo for his opt out/extension deal from this spring. 

Juan Soto to the Padres, 2022

The Nationals were unable to pull of an extension as talks broke down with the player. Even with a few years left until free agency, it had become clear it was time to move on. The fear of no return, as they got with Bryce Harper, loomed large. 

Player Value:

What is a comp for a guy under 23 with the seasons he had put up? "Childish Bambino" was 19 when he was called up, and put up an amazing rookie campaign, coming in 2nd in ROY honors to some guy named Ronald Acuna Jr. He has a CAREER OBP of .423 with a CAREER OPS of .943. In that short time, he was a 3 time Silver Slugger, 3 time Top-10 MVP vote getter, with 2 All Star Game elections. 

As mentioned, Juan had 2 1/2 years of control when dealt. His deal had the expiring contract of Josh Bell as well.  

Prospect Package:

1.) CJ Abrams, SS, 20 years Old (1 in Padres, 9 in MLB)

2.) Mackenzie Gore, LHP, 22 years old (4 in Padres)

3.) Robert Hassell III, OF (2 in Padres, 21 in MLB)

4.) James Wood, OF (3 in Padres)

5.) Jarlin Susana, RHP (14 in Padres)

6.) Luke Voit, 1B, MLB

This package is huge, and absolutely needed given the talent involved. Leave it to AJ Preller to make deals. I am sure this still has it's naysayers, but the large amount of high end talent is hard to ignore. They received two MLB caliper players so far, with Wood, Hassell III, and Jarlin still top 10 organizational talent in recent prospect rankings. Wood and Hassell still fall on Top 150 propects in baseball as well. (Fangraphs)

CC Sabathia to Milwaukee, 2008

 

This trade really sticks out to me as getting the most bang for your prospect buck. CC was HIM (I feel old typing that) after the trade.  He was having a good year in 2008, but really took it to another level in the NL. 

Player Value:

Take a look at these splits:

With Cleveland: 6-8, 18 Starts, 3.83 ERA, 122.1 IP, 123 SOs

With Milwaukee: 11-2, 17 Starts, 1.65 ERA, 130.2 IP, 128 SOs

Let's not forget he threw 7 complete games, 3 of them shut outs. Unbelievable.

Prior to that, he was "just" a 27 year old with 4 15+ win seasons, 3 All Star games, and a 2007 Cy Young award. 

Prospect Package:

1.) Zach Jackson (NR)

2.) Matt LaPorta, LF, 23 years old (2 in Brewers)

3.) Rob Bryson (11 in Brewers)

4.) PTBNL who turned into Michael Brantley (NR)

The story of this trade is a typical baseball trade. LaPorta garnered all of the attention given the pedigree at the time. He never panned out, only getting 967 MLB ABs. The irony is how great the Michael Brantley acquisition looked. 

A note: Baseball is weird. Baseball is hard. I always try to remember that everyone involved in these deals have both more minor league and major league at bats than I do. 

New Contract:

CC never played for the Brew Crew again, signing a 7 year, $161M deal with the Yankees after that season. 

Justin Verlander to Houston, 2017

This trade makes my heart hurt, as he really wanted to be here in 2017. Oh, what could have been.

Player Value:

I was curious how this guy would age. I am sure the Cubs were as well. However, this guy has been a stud, and continued to do so for Houston, trash cans and no trash cans. 

Up to the age 34 seasons, Verlander had won ROY, Cy Young and MVP in 2011, then a pedestrian 7 additional  top 11 Cy Young finishes and 4 MVP Top 20 finishes. 

Prospect Package:

1.) Daz Cameron, OF, 20 years Old (10 in Astros)

2.) Franklin Perez, RHP, 19 years Old (3 in Astros) 

3.) Jake Rogers, C, 21 years old (NR in Astros)

Daz has not panned out. Jake Rogers is a back-up catcher. Franklin never pitched in the MLB. Pretty high cost for the Tigers who wanted to rebuild and shed salary. 

New Contract:

The Astros went on to take the remaining 2 1/2 years of his deal, with the Tigers throwing in $8M of the total $28M owed in the last 2 full seasons. Since, he made $81M on a deal with the Astros for 3 years. This offseason, he signed a 2 year, $86M contract with the Mets, who recently were fitted for rings for winning the Offseason. 

The Cubs Package for Ohtani

There is not an exact comp. Ohtani the most special player to play in this generation. The length of time he will be able to do this will redefine expectations and set unreachable bars for the rest of time. 

These sentences are not ridiculous or hyperbole. We simply have not seen this before. Here is how I am assessing the market for Ohtani.

The Market

Buster Olney is proclaiming the Yankees will do whatever it takes to get him at the deadline. I don't see that making a ton of sense. My "logical brain" says an in-season move like this makes the most sense for teams in search of the "final piece" to jump their strong roster. My comp is the Cubs getting Chapman in 2016. The cost was high, but the piece was perfect. 

Looking at the playoff teams right now, the Rays, Orioles, Rangers, Astros, Braves, Reds, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Giants are teams with current records and a place in the standings that would see a huge jump in World Series futures by adding Ohtani. Of these teams, 6 have top 10 farm systems per Fangraphs. 

Of that group, I would probably rank the Dodgers and Giants as the most dangerous to re-sign him post trade. The Giants famously almost signed everyone this offseason, including Aaron Judge's brother, Arson:

first-ballot Hall of Fame tweet just dropped pic.twitter.com/G8MVkhr89Y

— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) December 6, 2022

The Cubs would need to beat packages put together by these west coast squads. I understand the timing isn't wonderful competition wise for the Cubs, but the negotiation advantage is worth the price (if it is 100% the intent of this Front Office to sign him). 

The Package

 Looking at the examples above, it seems like a good place to start is with two top 10 organization prospects (with MLB rank) for Hitter Ohtani. Pitcher Ohtani would add 2 more prospects. The Angels could try to swing a deal for some younger ML talent to supplement Trout with, as their financials may limit big swings in free agency. This organization is also hungry for pitching, which has seemed like their achilles heal in the Trout years. An avenue worth exploring is any opportunity to help the Angels unload a large contract. Specifically, Anthony Rendon. Ironically, this could help the Cubs 3B issues in the short term. 

Names I float as the Cubs

James Triantos (2 in Cubs): 20 years old at Single A. Walks more than he strikes out. High OBP and contact. 

Christopher Morel (MLB): I love Morel. Currently, he is positionless as he works out some defensive issues. His value can come from versatility. The Angels may value a player that has seen success in the Majors. This does reduce some risk on the return. 

Kevin Alcantara, (4 in Cubs): 21 years old at Single A as well. The Jaguar is exciting, but contracts lock up the Cubs outfield for a few years. This is not a problem until it is a problem. The logic here is the surplus and the rank. 

Hayden Wesneski (MLB): Wesneski has had some decent time in the Majors. It has become apparent he needs a bit more command on a 3rd pitch to help neutralize lefties. When the sweeper/slider is working, he is great. He could start in that rotation ASAP. 

The Deal

Completed using baseballtradevalues.com

Selfishly, I stayed away from names like PCA or Horton. Prospects are NEVER guarantees, but I really like what I saw in those guys. The influx of college talent may help elevate names on this list in the coming season as well. This deal helps the Cubs get the unicorn and keep the cupboard filled with pieces. I think about salary-eating potential for Brandon Drury/Anthony Rendon that can lower the prospect price. 

All in, the Cubs should only do this if they can negotiate and sign a contract. Their World Series window is not now, but landing a guy like this when Marquee is adding in-market streaming, Wrigley is opening a sports book, and marketing is beginning for 2024 feels extremely advantageous for business folk and fans alike. 

What do you think?

For the Love of the Game: Kyle Hendricks Edition

I went to write my "3 Up, 3 Down" post this week, but I just couldn't do it. I could not stop thinking about this weekend. 

I want to focus on something else: Kyle Hendricks. 

Since he made his Major League debut in 2014, I have adored watching him pitch. The Professor, dubbed for his Ivy League education, was different. In an age of rising velocities, power sweepers, and strike outs, Kyle existed in a 89-74 mph world of finesse, intelligence, and change-ups. 

Kyle changed the way I looked at pitching as a fan. I learned about tunneling and sequencing in order to understand how he could do what he could do. I learned about his change-up's shape and manipulation that made his the pitch have arm-side run vs lefties, and glove-side vs righties. 

In 2016, Kyle cemented himself as a Cubs legend with a 3rd place Cy Young finish, a NLCS clincher vs Clayton Kershaw, and a Game 7 start in the World Series. Based on a silly bet with my wife, my son got his name from him. 

Baseball tends to transcend logic and can become so powerful in how it connects to memories and emotions. My connection to the game has been Hendricks and marking the calendar to "go to class" as often as I could. Time is undefeated as it slips away and turns the present into past faster than we perceive or even want to admit. That sobering reality hit hard for me in 2022 when Kyle Hendricks was pulled from a game I was watching on my 33rd birthday. 

It started as a perfect moment: I had just finished a major setup goal in my Cub Cave (Pics or it didn't happen). At this point in the season, and potentially a longer stretch than that, it had become clear something was off. Kyle's change-up did not have it's signature bite. The differential between his off-speed pitches and his fastball shrunk, making the margin for success so much smaller. The home run rate began to climb, in tandem with his WHIP and ERA. Kyle was removed from the game with an injury. Gulp.

As fans, we can be extremely reactionary, but the body of work started to show a downturn in his career. I found myself emotionally unready for this. This was super surprising, given my fandom being  barraged with heartbreaking news like a tin roof in a hailstorm: Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and soon to be, Contreras gone. I was able to step back and evaluate each of those players with some sense of logic:

•  I wasn't in love with Bryant's shoulder and health, and was legitimately concerned on a longterm financial commitment if the Cubs continued to operate at or below the luxury tax thresholds.
• Contreras brought the most offensive value as a catcher, but their were legitimate game calling questions. 
• Baez I wanted. I got over it, but I wanted him. 
• I struggled with some of Rizzo's comments and decisions during the pandemic. That hurdled his hero status back to Earth.

Kyle was different. I spent a portion of the 2022 offseason mentally preparing for his career to be over. I read the stories of a new program to strengthen the shoulder with the capsular tear, but felt it was classic offseason fluff piece material. It was to update us on the last thread to a team that changed our fandom forever. 

And then, hope. Triple-A rehab stints. Then a late May return. I was in my Hendo jersey in the Cub Cave, ready to see my hero again. I rationalized the results as a stepping stone towards health. "Hey, he is out there, let's see if he recovers."

vs 

Per Baseball Savant

I feel baseball can be like the movies. The movie I specifically think of is "For the Love of the Game." Hendricks stepped on that mound vs. San Francisco on a National Fox broadcast, carrying the hopes of a slipping season, the burden of a winless Fox performance for the Cubs since the 2022 Field of Dreams game, and the search for building back what once was. 

Only 7 outs over 100 MPH, with 8 under 80MPH

And he was, as the kids say,  Him (I feel old typing that). I know it is not the same as it was (intentional Harry Styles pun). But, damn, it was special. I was watching the game on my phone as I laid with my youngest daughter as she fell asleep for the night. I had the sound off, heightening what I was seeing. I breathtaking drop away from a lefty. Precision to the corners. Soft contact (mostly). As it got later, I left my daughter's room to inform my wife of the situation developing. We turned on the game and watched it together. 

For one night, Kyle, and myself, got to pretend that this season hasn't been disappointing. For one night, my baseball world was perfect. Kyle was nearly perfect. And just like that, everything was right in my baseball world. 

Thank you for everything, regardless of where it goes from here, Kyle Hendricks. Go Cubs. Forever. 

3 Candors with CandidCubs on 5/11/2023

Hello! It has been a long time! 

I have found as the Cubs have returned to relevance, and my journey into baseball data have increased my need for a place for my thoughts. Here are a few things I am getting "candid" on:

• BleacherNation (my favorite Cubs content and it is not close) has a great article about their thoughts on Cubs broadcasts on Marquee.  I won't rehash what Michael discusses, but I think it is a great starting point on some of the gripes I have with the network. I still think the biggest issue is access, which I think will be solved in good time. 

• Is Justin Steele this teams ace? The argument can be made between him and Stroman in the early part of 2023, but Justin has felt like the classic "stopper." This is likely due to run support, as Stroman hasn't won his last 3 starts even with logging 3 QS. Boog/Girardi brought up an interest point on Justin Steele last evening: As a LHP, he seems to not face many lefties. I looked into that this morning and saw the sample size is pretty small, but they may be on to something. Justin has great Fastball command and is able to manipulate his pitches to get varying movement. His barrel rate is still elite, but in 2023, Lefties are hitting him slightly better. Recency bias of lefties in St. Louis' lineup squaring him up has me curious if his glove side run is harder to control. It will be something to see if there is an adjustments by the league. Justin hasn't looked totally locked in and the results are still excellent. I am sure the command on the arm-side fastball will be something he masters as he sees more lefties.

• I love having Christopher Morel back. His attitude, his bat, his versatility. *Chefs Kiss.* I think the Cubs are very lucky this division is not strong and have been able to give run to Hosmer and other veterans to get an idea of Roster construction moving forward. Yes, I did link Hosmer's Baseball Savant page. Yes, you should go look at why some line items are blue. Yes, you should see the concerning large amount of work that looks consistently bad. I will stop there, as I am hoping this is sorting itself out. 

- CandidCubs

 

 

 

Home Opener - An opener of my perspective

This is the view of my section. I am so excited to sitting in those green beauties once again (Well, 2 rows closer than last year 😍). 

I don't know if it is just me, but I am trying really hard not to overdue my excitement just yet. Lots of expectations, predictions,  etc. No, I am not selling out to some curse theory, hoax, hex, or such either. As I have gotten older, I have grown more in love with this game, while growing in understanding the nuances that make it go. With a grueling 162 game season ahead, so many things can happen. 

I love the early season storylines of who is good, who is bad. I had a a conversation this past Friday with a Cardinals fan who was POUNDING the panic button as his team stumbled in their opening series to the Pirates. Trevor Story is on pace to hit over 250 Home Runs. Currently, I am watching the "rebuilding" Reds no-hit our heroes in the bottom of the 5th. 

What I am trying to say, make sure to take some time to enjoy the present. Baseball is a beautiful game with nuances that take a detail mind to find. So let's enjoy this ride. Oh, and Go Cubs!