For the Love of the Game: Kyle Hendricks Edition

I went to write my "3 Up, 3 Down" post this week, but I just couldn't do it. I could not stop thinking about this weekend. 

I want to focus on something else: Kyle Hendricks. 

Since he made his Major League debut in 2014, I have adored watching him pitch. The Professor, dubbed for his Ivy League education, was different. In an age of rising velocities, power sweepers, and strike outs, Kyle existed in a 89-74 mph world of finesse, intelligence, and change-ups. 

Kyle changed the way I looked at pitching as a fan. I learned about tunneling and sequencing in order to understand how he could do what he could do. I learned about his change-up's shape and manipulation that made his the pitch have arm-side run vs lefties, and glove-side vs righties. 

In 2016, Kyle cemented himself as a Cubs legend with a 3rd place Cy Young finish, a NLCS clincher vs Clayton Kershaw, and a Game 7 start in the World Series. Based on a silly bet with my wife, my son got his name from him. 

Baseball tends to transcend logic and can become so powerful in how it connects to memories and emotions. My connection to the game has been Hendricks and marking the calendar to "go to class" as often as I could. Time is undefeated as it slips away and turns the present into past faster than we perceive or even want to admit. That sobering reality hit hard for me in 2022 when Kyle Hendricks was pulled from a game I was watching on my 33rd birthday. 

It started as a perfect moment: I had just finished a major setup goal in my Cub Cave (Pics or it didn't happen). At this point in the season, and potentially a longer stretch than that, it had become clear something was off. Kyle's change-up did not have it's signature bite. The differential between his off-speed pitches and his fastball shrunk, making the margin for success so much smaller. The home run rate began to climb, in tandem with his WHIP and ERA. Kyle was removed from the game with an injury. Gulp.

As fans, we can be extremely reactionary, but the body of work started to show a downturn in his career. I found myself emotionally unready for this. This was super surprising, given my fandom being  barraged with heartbreaking news like a tin roof in a hailstorm: Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and soon to be, Contreras gone. I was able to step back and evaluate each of those players with some sense of logic:

•  I wasn't in love with Bryant's shoulder and health, and was legitimately concerned on a longterm financial commitment if the Cubs continued to operate at or below the luxury tax thresholds.
• Contreras brought the most offensive value as a catcher, but their were legitimate game calling questions. 
• Baez I wanted. I got over it, but I wanted him. 
• I struggled with some of Rizzo's comments and decisions during the pandemic. That hurdled his hero status back to Earth.

Kyle was different. I spent a portion of the 2022 offseason mentally preparing for his career to be over. I read the stories of a new program to strengthen the shoulder with the capsular tear, but felt it was classic offseason fluff piece material. It was to update us on the last thread to a team that changed our fandom forever. 

And then, hope. Triple-A rehab stints. Then a late May return. I was in my Hendo jersey in the Cub Cave, ready to see my hero again. I rationalized the results as a stepping stone towards health. "Hey, he is out there, let's see if he recovers."

vs 

Per Baseball Savant

I feel baseball can be like the movies. The movie I specifically think of is "For the Love of the Game." Hendricks stepped on that mound vs. San Francisco on a National Fox broadcast, carrying the hopes of a slipping season, the burden of a winless Fox performance for the Cubs since the 2022 Field of Dreams game, and the search for building back what once was. 

Only 7 outs over 100 MPH, with 8 under 80MPH

And he was, as the kids say,  Him (I feel old typing that). I know it is not the same as it was (intentional Harry Styles pun). But, damn, it was special. I was watching the game on my phone as I laid with my youngest daughter as she fell asleep for the night. I had the sound off, heightening what I was seeing. I breathtaking drop away from a lefty. Precision to the corners. Soft contact (mostly). As it got later, I left my daughter's room to inform my wife of the situation developing. We turned on the game and watched it together. 

For one night, Kyle, and myself, got to pretend that this season hasn't been disappointing. For one night, my baseball world was perfect. Kyle was nearly perfect. And just like that, everything was right in my baseball world. 

Thank you for everything, regardless of where it goes from here, Kyle Hendricks. Go Cubs. Forever. 

3 Things Bothering Me about the 2023 Cubs

First of all, I hope you and yours enjoyed a long weekend with your friends, family, and loved ones. 

If you planned on using the Cubs to help yourself enjoy the unofficial kick-off to summer, you chose un-wisely. 

I am out of ideas. I am out of answers. I am frustrated. If you follow the Cubs at all on Twitter, you can feel the pulse of a fanbase that has struggled to accept what has happened the last few season. For those keeping score at home:

2016 - Pure euphoria in the highest order. 

2017-2019 - Weird versions of euphoria with a collapse mixed in

2020 - Covid

2021 - Last right of the WS core

2022 - Looking for margins to go right to compete, blows up in their face

2023 - Better version of looking to compete at the margins...blowing up in their face. 

Here are 3 things that are bothering me that I just don't have clean answers for. Whether we deserve them as fans is something else entirely. 

1.) Money

I am guilty of coming to the defense of this team often. I think the Ricketts family gets a bit TOO much heat (ducks aggressively). They have invested heavily into the ballpark and the surrounding area. I realize these are profitable ventures for them. However, I struggle to believe they thought the team would be what it is when they made those decisions. Throw a global pandemic on top of that, and I imagine they have eaten their fair share of expenses and loan obligations.

Let's not confuse these comments with sympathy. They have a lot of money. I think these loan obligations have had significant affect on the budget for baseball operations. After 2016, things got weird in roster construction. Large free agent contracts disappeared, causing Theo to spend farm assets to supplement a then flawed roster. That lead to a fork in the road: 

a.) extend a core that did not develop to what we thought they were and hamstring yourself financially to older players

b.) Rebuild as quick as possible to diminish the outrage and affect on game day revenue. 

We didn't love the answer. I agree it was the correct one (besides Rizzo potentially). 

Fast forward to the 2022 offseason. Jed spent. A LOT. Dansby, Taillon, Belli, and others. I remember prior to signing Dansby, I was worried we would miss out on the SS FA class altogether. There were rumors early on, including wild rumors, of the Cubs trying to land multiple SS. I am curious if the Cubs were trying to get Xander AND Dansby, but the Padres shocked with the length. 

Based on recent comments from Jed, I think he regrets not spending a bit more on a few relievers. 

This team needs a front end Starter, and some slugging. 3B is potentially a hole as well. It doesn't matter who is out there besides one player: Ohtani. Jeff Passan said recently that he doesn't know why he would pick the Cubs based on how things are right now. I would really like this front office to prove him wrong. 

Will the money be there? Per sportrac, the Cubs have projected Salary obligations of $159M with a Luxury tax cap of $237M. They have money to spend. 

2.) Roster Construction

I don't know where to begin. The April start made me believe this team could challenge the Cardinals, and entertain a playoff spot. At the beginning of May, we all saw 4 game versus the lowly Nationals, followed by a revenge tour against the Marlins. The Cubs looked lifeless and lost, with several games of small villages LOB at the hands of Eric Hosmer. 

I understood signing Mancini and Hosmer as "Mervis Insurance." It cost league minimum to get Hosmer, as the Padres are still playing him big boy money. 

Hosmer was bad. When they signed him, he was bad. He played bad. All the "under the hood numbers" were...bad. Yet on the roster he remained, batting commonly higher than 7. 

There are several of these players that have been fixtures to the team this year. Nick Madrigal. Edwin Rios being on the roster while not playing. Luis Torrens breaking camp.

Reaction: 

The Cubs have not shown urgency in addressing these issues. This statement I understand is a matter of opinion, as I will agree I can hear the sirens of the "Small Sample Size Police." 

Logic:

When REALLY pushed to think about it, there are not an abundance of options that are currently on the 40 man. Again, this does not excuse the Front Office from getting creative. I heard a lot about the "roster crunch" this offseason, but the Cubs did very little in addressing this issue prior to Opening Day, giving them tougher decisions on so many fringe options (McKinstry, Torrens, Hosmer).

3.) Lineups

David Ross isn't acting alone. If he is, we need to potentially have another discussion. Tauchman batted 3rd the other day. On Monday, the Cubs rolled out 3 rights vs Taj Bradley, who has extreme splits that favor righties. The Cubs won that game with only hits from their right handed hitters (Point Cubs). 

This might highlight a bigger issue that has reared its head that I ignored a bit this offseason: organizational depth. Can we be mad at these lineups? Yes we can, but I counter with the following: What is the better option?

I think a sign of our times is a constant barrage of finger pointing and frustration on issues, without ever really presenting reasonable solutions. When looking at the Cubs Triple-A roster, there are not any SURE FIRE replacements there. Nelson Velazquez is an interesting option with ML at bats, but I can agree a bit with the development angle for him. In addition, the Cubs have so many positions locked down, it leaves very few spots to really experiment. 

The Lineup card starts everyday (when everyone is healthy) with the following LOCKS:

Happer, 

Belli, 

Seiya, 

Swanson, 

Nico. 

That leaves versatility and platooning options at 1B, 3B, C, and DH. That feels like a lot, but it truly isn't. Patrick Wisdom is great in stretches (April), but can get exposed (May). I have seen so many grumbles about Mastrobouni, but his versatility is what can spell Wisdom. I do have a gripe of the Cubs not giving Morel a set position to start at AAA this season, but his approach has wild variety in need of addressing, too. 

All in all, the Cubs problems are not necessarily simple. Maybe we were all to excited when they started the way they did. National pundits have said this team is still a year away, and these depth issues potentially confirm that hypothesis. The 2023 Chicago Cubs are not a bad team, but the 2023 fan base is tired of rebuilds and waiting. The pressure is on the Northside. Does the front office/ownership feel it?

A Shot of Jameson - 3 Up, 3 Down

Friday night in Philly was fun. Lots of runs. Vintage Stro back on the bump. I felt joy again.

The following 48 hours of Cubs baseball posed more question than answers, and honestly dampened my spirits. I had been thinking of this season as a roller coaster, with dips and drops around the .500 mark. 

BleacherNation captured those feelings in this tweet:

Then a secondary tweet caught my eye:

If it weren’t for the Athletics embodying the plot to Major League to get to Vegas, the Cubs would have had the worst record in the last month. I know there are a lot of one run loses in there, but it never felt that bad.

Let’s check in on where we are:

Record: 20-26; 5 GB on the NLC

Up next: A much needed home stand vs the suddenly hotter Mets, the Reds, and Rays. 

3 Up:

1. Morel: My lord, is he en fuego. He is a full on conflagration.  If it feels like he has homered in every game, HE PRETTY MUCH HAS. In 11 games, he has 8 HRs with a 1.352 OPS. A lot of things I am reading on Twitter seems to be playing “What If” on the timing of his call-up. In a team hungry for slugging, he is exactly what they need right now. There are so many uncertainties in baseball, I generally try not to entertain these scenarios. It is much harder in this stretch of play to ignore it. 
2. Lt. Dansby: I will admit when I am wrong. I was low on Dansby this off-season given the crop of available shortstops. I new his glove was solid, and fell in love with the idea of his gap power at the Friendly Confines. If you take a look around, Dansby has been likely the best signing of that class. In fact,  he is near the top of baseball in total WAR at 2.2.
3. Man of Steele:  Looking at that WAR list, you will notice ANOTHER Cub featured. Justin has been phenomenal this year. Per his Baseball Savant page, he is in the 96th percentile in Avg. Exit Velocity and 97th in HardHit%. Justin has given up so little hard contact, and continues to manage this with a fastball and a several shapes slider. 

3 Down:

1. Taillon: Generally I don't advocate for "fake injuries," but it might be time for Taillon to get some time to work on mechanics. The early results looked ok with time to normalize as he got stretched out. I think we are seeing some issues with getting back into the swing of things after the injury. His past 50 PA have see his wOBA sky rocket. He still measures with elite fastball and curve spin. I am curious if the Cubs can get him a rehab start or two in a controlled setting to fix the mechanics. This team is dead in the water if he can't get right. 
2. Bullpen: I will put myself in the camp of folks who felt the Cub's pitching infrastructure had turned a corner with the emergence of Hughes, Roberts, Thompson, and Steele last year. In addition, the Cubs have had so much success in revitalizing and flipping veterans (Kimbrel, Robertson, Givens). Currently, the twitter-verse is calling for David Ross' job based on his attempts to manage a bullpen that has struggled. As mentioned on On to Waveland, the Cubs are getting aggressive with pitching prospects by moving them to bullpen roles. There could be options on the way that will hopefully rights the ship. 
3. Wisdom: This is a Patrick Wisdom Stan account. I absolutely adore the guy and what he brings to the table. He started the season Morel-level hot, but has cooled off significantly. He is in a tough stretch dating to the road trip that saw his K% at 56% with 2 doubles to his name. Madrigal remains on this roster to protect Wisdom from tougher matchups. However, Madrigal has not really been a solid replacement. I noticed Mastrobouni got the start there on Sunday. It will be interesting to see how the Cubs manage Wisdom's plate appearances going forward to get him right. 

Lastly, here are 3 baseball related things worth checking out that I enjoyed:

1. On to Waveland: If you are not listening to this podcast, you need to as soon as possible. This is my favorite Cubs podcast out there, as I adore Brett, Sahadev, and Patrick. Add it to your rotation today.
2. MLB The Show: I am a big baseball gamer, and this year's MLB the Show has been a ton of fun. I recently started a Cub's franchise to try out the new scouting system. I am pretty impressed with the level of detail in finding the next star for your team. 
3. Northside Bound: When the Cubs MLB team makes me sad, I like to read up on prospects to cheer me up. This is the place to go. Give Greg a follow on twitter as well!

I am hoping things get back on track this week. The Cubs are super fortunate that they are in a division that is not strong, and a stretch of solid play can fix this.