A Shot of Jameson - 3 Up, 3 Down

Friday night in Philly was fun. Lots of runs. Vintage Stro back on the bump. I felt joy again.

The following 48 hours of Cubs baseball posed more question than answers, and honestly dampened my spirits. I had been thinking of this season as a roller coaster, with dips and drops around the .500 mark. 

BleacherNation captured those feelings in this tweet:

Then a secondary tweet caught my eye:

If it weren’t for the Athletics embodying the plot to Major League to get to Vegas, the Cubs would have had the worst record in the last month. I know there are a lot of one run loses in there, but it never felt that bad.

Let’s check in on where we are:

Record: 20-26; 5 GB on the NLC

Up next: A much needed home stand vs the suddenly hotter Mets, the Reds, and Rays. 

3 Up:

1. Morel: My lord, is he en fuego. He is a full on conflagration.  If it feels like he has homered in every game, HE PRETTY MUCH HAS. In 11 games, he has 8 HRs with a 1.352 OPS. A lot of things I am reading on Twitter seems to be playing “What If” on the timing of his call-up. In a team hungry for slugging, he is exactly what they need right now. There are so many uncertainties in baseball, I generally try not to entertain these scenarios. It is much harder in this stretch of play to ignore it. 
2. Lt. Dansby: I will admit when I am wrong. I was low on Dansby this off-season given the crop of available shortstops. I new his glove was solid, and fell in love with the idea of his gap power at the Friendly Confines. If you take a look around, Dansby has been likely the best signing of that class. In fact,  he is near the top of baseball in total WAR at 2.2.
3. Man of Steele:  Looking at that WAR list, you will notice ANOTHER Cub featured. Justin has been phenomenal this year. Per his Baseball Savant page, he is in the 96th percentile in Avg. Exit Velocity and 97th in HardHit%. Justin has given up so little hard contact, and continues to manage this with a fastball and a several shapes slider. 

3 Down:

1. Taillon: Generally I don't advocate for "fake injuries," but it might be time for Taillon to get some time to work on mechanics. The early results looked ok with time to normalize as he got stretched out. I think we are seeing some issues with getting back into the swing of things after the injury. His past 50 PA have see his wOBA sky rocket. He still measures with elite fastball and curve spin. I am curious if the Cubs can get him a rehab start or two in a controlled setting to fix the mechanics. This team is dead in the water if he can't get right. 
2. Bullpen: I will put myself in the camp of folks who felt the Cub's pitching infrastructure had turned a corner with the emergence of Hughes, Roberts, Thompson, and Steele last year. In addition, the Cubs have had so much success in revitalizing and flipping veterans (Kimbrel, Robertson, Givens). Currently, the twitter-verse is calling for David Ross' job based on his attempts to manage a bullpen that has struggled. As mentioned on On to Waveland, the Cubs are getting aggressive with pitching prospects by moving them to bullpen roles. There could be options on the way that will hopefully rights the ship. 
3. Wisdom: This is a Patrick Wisdom Stan account. I absolutely adore the guy and what he brings to the table. He started the season Morel-level hot, but has cooled off significantly. He is in a tough stretch dating to the road trip that saw his K% at 56% with 2 doubles to his name. Madrigal remains on this roster to protect Wisdom from tougher matchups. However, Madrigal has not really been a solid replacement. I noticed Mastrobouni got the start there on Sunday. It will be interesting to see how the Cubs manage Wisdom's plate appearances going forward to get him right. 

Lastly, here are 3 baseball related things worth checking out that I enjoyed:

1. On to Waveland: If you are not listening to this podcast, you need to as soon as possible. This is my favorite Cubs podcast out there, as I adore Brett, Sahadev, and Patrick. Add it to your rotation today.
2. MLB The Show: I am a big baseball gamer, and this year's MLB the Show has been a ton of fun. I recently started a Cub's franchise to try out the new scouting system. I am pretty impressed with the level of detail in finding the next star for your team. 
3. Northside Bound: When the Cubs MLB team makes me sad, I like to read up on prospects to cheer me up. This is the place to go. Give Greg a follow on twitter as well!

I am hoping things get back on track this week. The Cubs are super fortunate that they are in a division that is not strong, and a stretch of solid play can fix this. 

Twin Killing

 I hope you had wonderful Mother's Day activities. Moms are such a big part of our world, so I hope you took care of them yesterday.

The Cubs, on the other hand, got taken care of...

Let's do a check in on the standings and a 3 up, 3 down of our beloved Northsiders:

Standings

Record: 19-21; 4 GB of the Brewers, Too early to look at WC standings

Run differential: +29

Interesting stats of note:

• Cubs are 2nd in the league in Team OBP at .340. Going into the 2023 season, I was concerned about the Cub's ability to Slug. The stats tell the story that are eyes are seeing: The Cubs are getting a lot of traffic on the bases, but are not getting a large amount of extra base hits. Slugging is at .425, which is good for 8th in the league. 
• Pitching stats tell a very similar story. After a...rough weekend on the mound, the Cubs are middle of the pack in team ERA. One thing I found interesting is the Cubs WHIP and BAA stats. They are a top 5 team in both, which would show pretty limited base runners. The difference with this Cub staff is the lack of strike outs. In a simple stats way of looking at this, the more randomness of a ball in play introduced vs a Strike out, the higher likelihood of runs, hits, action. 

If I was honest with myself to start this season, this teams lack of power pitching and power bats was a concern for a legitimate division run. I am very interested if these stats will improve in any way, or if this is the teams identity. 

3 Up...

1. Christopher Morel: There is no reason for him to go back down once Nico is healthy. He OBLITERATED 2 baseballs this weekend, and is a plug-n-play glove. His defense is serviceable all over the field and has a plus-arm. 
2. Seiya Suzuki: Seiya did not get the benefit of a full spring this year with the oblique issue. He came into camp look like a beast, having added muscle and some pop in early games. He has been pretty solid with Hard Hit rate, with launch angle being an issue. It was nice to see some XBH this weekend. He had a nice series with 1.083 OPS for the weekend with a 108MPH line drive HR on Sunday. Hopefully this is a sign of some more slug to come. 
3. Drew Smyly: That Unicorn Curveball is a thing of beauty. He is a quality start machine. Every competitive team needs a bunch of innings eaters, and he has been more than that. Based on this barrel % chart, he has been hard to square up. (Not quite Justin Steele ELITE, but still great)

3 down...

1. Holy strikeouts, Batman!: The Cubs faced a tough test with Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan this weekend, who have been excellent for the Twinkies so far this year. They did a solid job of getting Sonny's pitch count up on Friday, but the overall results were not great. Cubs are mid-pack in strikeout rate at 22.6%. However, they struck out at a 30.4% clip this weekend. Not ideal. 
2. Hayden Wesneski: I was curious how the Cubs were going to find starts for Kyle Hendricks after his rehab outings (Another good one for him at Iowa yesterday) Hayden was the clear 5th starter out of camp, but really needs some runway at Iowa to develop a 3rd pitch. His fastball command has not been as great at times, and the hard hit rate signals some pitch sequencing and location issues. 
3. Roster construction: I am growing tired of a sub-optimal roster. Looking at the standings, the Cubs have opportunities to sneak into the playoffs with the right stretch of play, as it is only May. HOWEVER, I see some opportunities to maximize this roster. It is time to bring some of the fun arms with high velo up from Iowa (Cam Sanders, Manny Rodriguez) to replace Boxberger at minimum. Finding at bats for Eric Hosmer should stop. Nick Madrigal should not be platooning Patrick Wisdom. When Nico comes back, that should be Morel. I get we need some more opportunities for Barnhart, but I was super impressed with Amaya in his tryout. He had a REALLY nice day at Iowa yesterday (Look at the box score linked earlier.)

Here is hoping for a better week. Cubbies in Houston starting tonight. 

Home Opener - An opener of my perspective

This is the view of my section. I am so excited to sitting in those green beauties once again (Well, 2 rows closer than last year 😍). 

I don't know if it is just me, but I am trying really hard not to overdue my excitement just yet. Lots of expectations, predictions,  etc. No, I am not selling out to some curse theory, hoax, hex, or such either. As I have gotten older, I have grown more in love with this game, while growing in understanding the nuances that make it go. With a grueling 162 game season ahead, so many things can happen. 

I love the early season storylines of who is good, who is bad. I had a a conversation this past Friday with a Cardinals fan who was POUNDING the panic button as his team stumbled in their opening series to the Pirates. Trevor Story is on pace to hit over 250 Home Runs. Currently, I am watching the "rebuilding" Reds no-hit our heroes in the bottom of the 5th. 

What I am trying to say, make sure to take some time to enjoy the present. Baseball is a beautiful game with nuances that take a detail mind to find. So let's enjoy this ride. Oh, and Go Cubs!