What would an Ohtani trade to the Cubs look like?

 

The trade deadline is coming and it is one of my favorite times of year, regardless of the Cubs standing. Every year, a big name or two lights up a market like the NYC Christmas tree as speculation and scenarios engulf in a conflagration of euphoria, jealousy, and daydreams. I very much like taking part. 

Trades and their excitement are good for baseball. This year, the best player on the planet could become available. The Angels have suffered many injuries and are beginning to fall out of the West race

Trades to look at...I guess:

Machado to the Dodgers, 2018

 

In 2018, the world new Manny was not going to be an Oriole. There was not much public discussion of traction on a massive extension, and doubt spread given the Orioles recent play and lack of a track record committing the level of money needed for Manny. 

Player Value:

Machado in 2018 was having an EXCELLENT first half. The 25 year old had a .315 BA, .963 OPS with 24 HRs and 65 RBI. 

Manny started playing in 2012 and had already had 3 top 10 MVP finishes, 2 gold gloves, and was just selected to his 4th All Star game. 

Manny currently has 53.5 WAR through 12 seasons of play, tied as the 8th most valuable active player

Prospect Package:

1.) Yusniel Diaz, OF (11), 20 years old

2.) Dean Kremer, RHP, 22 years old

3.) Rylan Bannon, 3B , 22 years old

4.) Zach Pop, RHP, 22 years old

5.) Breyvic Valera, 3B (21), 26 years old

At the time, that seemed like a huge package for a playoff piece. Fangraphs had them at 11, 21 in the top 23, with the others unrated. 

New Contract:

Manny Machado did not stay in LA, selecting the surprising (at the time) 11 year, $350M offering from San Diego. That "CBA" math AAV turned out to be a sweet deal, giving him plenty of ammo for his opt out/extension deal from this spring. 

Juan Soto to the Padres, 2022

The Nationals were unable to pull of an extension as talks broke down with the player. Even with a few years left until free agency, it had become clear it was time to move on. The fear of no return, as they got with Bryce Harper, loomed large. 

Player Value:

What is a comp for a guy under 23 with the seasons he had put up? "Childish Bambino" was 19 when he was called up, and put up an amazing rookie campaign, coming in 2nd in ROY honors to some guy named Ronald Acuna Jr. He has a CAREER OBP of .423 with a CAREER OPS of .943. In that short time, he was a 3 time Silver Slugger, 3 time Top-10 MVP vote getter, with 2 All Star Game elections. 

As mentioned, Juan had 2 1/2 years of control when dealt. His deal had the expiring contract of Josh Bell as well.  

Prospect Package:

1.) CJ Abrams, SS, 20 years Old (1 in Padres, 9 in MLB)

2.) Mackenzie Gore, LHP, 22 years old (4 in Padres)

3.) Robert Hassell III, OF (2 in Padres, 21 in MLB)

4.) James Wood, OF (3 in Padres)

5.) Jarlin Susana, RHP (14 in Padres)

6.) Luke Voit, 1B, MLB

This package is huge, and absolutely needed given the talent involved. Leave it to AJ Preller to make deals. I am sure this still has it's naysayers, but the large amount of high end talent is hard to ignore. They received two MLB caliper players so far, with Wood, Hassell III, and Jarlin still top 10 organizational talent in recent prospect rankings. Wood and Hassell still fall on Top 150 propects in baseball as well. (Fangraphs)

CC Sabathia to Milwaukee, 2008

 

This trade really sticks out to me as getting the most bang for your prospect buck. CC was HIM (I feel old typing that) after the trade.  He was having a good year in 2008, but really took it to another level in the NL. 

Player Value:

Take a look at these splits:

With Cleveland: 6-8, 18 Starts, 3.83 ERA, 122.1 IP, 123 SOs

With Milwaukee: 11-2, 17 Starts, 1.65 ERA, 130.2 IP, 128 SOs

Let's not forget he threw 7 complete games, 3 of them shut outs. Unbelievable.

Prior to that, he was "just" a 27 year old with 4 15+ win seasons, 3 All Star games, and a 2007 Cy Young award. 

Prospect Package:

1.) Zach Jackson (NR)

2.) Matt LaPorta, LF, 23 years old (2 in Brewers)

3.) Rob Bryson (11 in Brewers)

4.) PTBNL who turned into Michael Brantley (NR)

The story of this trade is a typical baseball trade. LaPorta garnered all of the attention given the pedigree at the time. He never panned out, only getting 967 MLB ABs. The irony is how great the Michael Brantley acquisition looked. 

A note: Baseball is weird. Baseball is hard. I always try to remember that everyone involved in these deals have both more minor league and major league at bats than I do. 

New Contract:

CC never played for the Brew Crew again, signing a 7 year, $161M deal with the Yankees after that season. 

Justin Verlander to Houston, 2017

This trade makes my heart hurt, as he really wanted to be here in 2017. Oh, what could have been.

Player Value:

I was curious how this guy would age. I am sure the Cubs were as well. However, this guy has been a stud, and continued to do so for Houston, trash cans and no trash cans. 

Up to the age 34 seasons, Verlander had won ROY, Cy Young and MVP in 2011, then a pedestrian 7 additional  top 11 Cy Young finishes and 4 MVP Top 20 finishes. 

Prospect Package:

1.) Daz Cameron, OF, 20 years Old (10 in Astros)

2.) Franklin Perez, RHP, 19 years Old (3 in Astros) 

3.) Jake Rogers, C, 21 years old (NR in Astros)

Daz has not panned out. Jake Rogers is a back-up catcher. Franklin never pitched in the MLB. Pretty high cost for the Tigers who wanted to rebuild and shed salary. 

New Contract:

The Astros went on to take the remaining 2 1/2 years of his deal, with the Tigers throwing in $8M of the total $28M owed in the last 2 full seasons. Since, he made $81M on a deal with the Astros for 3 years. This offseason, he signed a 2 year, $86M contract with the Mets, who recently were fitted for rings for winning the Offseason. 

The Cubs Package for Ohtani

There is not an exact comp. Ohtani the most special player to play in this generation. The length of time he will be able to do this will redefine expectations and set unreachable bars for the rest of time. 

These sentences are not ridiculous or hyperbole. We simply have not seen this before. Here is how I am assessing the market for Ohtani.

The Market

Buster Olney is proclaiming the Yankees will do whatever it takes to get him at the deadline. I don't see that making a ton of sense. My "logical brain" says an in-season move like this makes the most sense for teams in search of the "final piece" to jump their strong roster. My comp is the Cubs getting Chapman in 2016. The cost was high, but the piece was perfect. 

Looking at the playoff teams right now, the Rays, Orioles, Rangers, Astros, Braves, Reds, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Giants are teams with current records and a place in the standings that would see a huge jump in World Series futures by adding Ohtani. Of these teams, 6 have top 10 farm systems per Fangraphs. 

Of that group, I would probably rank the Dodgers and Giants as the most dangerous to re-sign him post trade. The Giants famously almost signed everyone this offseason, including Aaron Judge's brother, Arson:

first-ballot Hall of Fame tweet just dropped pic.twitter.com/G8MVkhr89Y

— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) December 6, 2022

The Cubs would need to beat packages put together by these west coast squads. I understand the timing isn't wonderful competition wise for the Cubs, but the negotiation advantage is worth the price (if it is 100% the intent of this Front Office to sign him). 

The Package

 Looking at the examples above, it seems like a good place to start is with two top 10 organization prospects (with MLB rank) for Hitter Ohtani. Pitcher Ohtani would add 2 more prospects. The Angels could try to swing a deal for some younger ML talent to supplement Trout with, as their financials may limit big swings in free agency. This organization is also hungry for pitching, which has seemed like their achilles heal in the Trout years. An avenue worth exploring is any opportunity to help the Angels unload a large contract. Specifically, Anthony Rendon. Ironically, this could help the Cubs 3B issues in the short term. 

Names I float as the Cubs

James Triantos (2 in Cubs): 20 years old at Single A. Walks more than he strikes out. High OBP and contact. 

Christopher Morel (MLB): I love Morel. Currently, he is positionless as he works out some defensive issues. His value can come from versatility. The Angels may value a player that has seen success in the Majors. This does reduce some risk on the return. 

Kevin Alcantara, (4 in Cubs): 21 years old at Single A as well. The Jaguar is exciting, but contracts lock up the Cubs outfield for a few years. This is not a problem until it is a problem. The logic here is the surplus and the rank. 

Hayden Wesneski (MLB): Wesneski has had some decent time in the Majors. It has become apparent he needs a bit more command on a 3rd pitch to help neutralize lefties. When the sweeper/slider is working, he is great. He could start in that rotation ASAP. 

The Deal

Completed using baseballtradevalues.com

Selfishly, I stayed away from names like PCA or Horton. Prospects are NEVER guarantees, but I really like what I saw in those guys. The influx of college talent may help elevate names on this list in the coming season as well. This deal helps the Cubs get the unicorn and keep the cupboard filled with pieces. I think about salary-eating potential for Brandon Drury/Anthony Rendon that can lower the prospect price. 

All in, the Cubs should only do this if they can negotiate and sign a contract. Their World Series window is not now, but landing a guy like this when Marquee is adding in-market streaming, Wrigley is opening a sports book, and marketing is beginning for 2024 feels extremely advantageous for business folk and fans alike. 

What do you think?

For the Love of the Game: Kyle Hendricks Edition

I went to write my "3 Up, 3 Down" post this week, but I just couldn't do it. I could not stop thinking about this weekend. 

I want to focus on something else: Kyle Hendricks. 

Since he made his Major League debut in 2014, I have adored watching him pitch. The Professor, dubbed for his Ivy League education, was different. In an age of rising velocities, power sweepers, and strike outs, Kyle existed in a 89-74 mph world of finesse, intelligence, and change-ups. 

Kyle changed the way I looked at pitching as a fan. I learned about tunneling and sequencing in order to understand how he could do what he could do. I learned about his change-up's shape and manipulation that made his the pitch have arm-side run vs lefties, and glove-side vs righties. 

In 2016, Kyle cemented himself as a Cubs legend with a 3rd place Cy Young finish, a NLCS clincher vs Clayton Kershaw, and a Game 7 start in the World Series. Based on a silly bet with my wife, my son got his name from him. 

Baseball tends to transcend logic and can become so powerful in how it connects to memories and emotions. My connection to the game has been Hendricks and marking the calendar to "go to class" as often as I could. Time is undefeated as it slips away and turns the present into past faster than we perceive or even want to admit. That sobering reality hit hard for me in 2022 when Kyle Hendricks was pulled from a game I was watching on my 33rd birthday. 

It started as a perfect moment: I had just finished a major setup goal in my Cub Cave (Pics or it didn't happen). At this point in the season, and potentially a longer stretch than that, it had become clear something was off. Kyle's change-up did not have it's signature bite. The differential between his off-speed pitches and his fastball shrunk, making the margin for success so much smaller. The home run rate began to climb, in tandem with his WHIP and ERA. Kyle was removed from the game with an injury. Gulp.

As fans, we can be extremely reactionary, but the body of work started to show a downturn in his career. I found myself emotionally unready for this. This was super surprising, given my fandom being  barraged with heartbreaking news like a tin roof in a hailstorm: Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and soon to be, Contreras gone. I was able to step back and evaluate each of those players with some sense of logic:

•  I wasn't in love with Bryant's shoulder and health, and was legitimately concerned on a longterm financial commitment if the Cubs continued to operate at or below the luxury tax thresholds.
• Contreras brought the most offensive value as a catcher, but their were legitimate game calling questions. 
• Baez I wanted. I got over it, but I wanted him. 
• I struggled with some of Rizzo's comments and decisions during the pandemic. That hurdled his hero status back to Earth.

Kyle was different. I spent a portion of the 2022 offseason mentally preparing for his career to be over. I read the stories of a new program to strengthen the shoulder with the capsular tear, but felt it was classic offseason fluff piece material. It was to update us on the last thread to a team that changed our fandom forever. 

And then, hope. Triple-A rehab stints. Then a late May return. I was in my Hendo jersey in the Cub Cave, ready to see my hero again. I rationalized the results as a stepping stone towards health. "Hey, he is out there, let's see if he recovers."

vs 

Per Baseball Savant

I feel baseball can be like the movies. The movie I specifically think of is "For the Love of the Game." Hendricks stepped on that mound vs. San Francisco on a National Fox broadcast, carrying the hopes of a slipping season, the burden of a winless Fox performance for the Cubs since the 2022 Field of Dreams game, and the search for building back what once was. 

Only 7 outs over 100 MPH, with 8 under 80MPH

And he was, as the kids say,  Him (I feel old typing that). I know it is not the same as it was (intentional Harry Styles pun). But, damn, it was special. I was watching the game on my phone as I laid with my youngest daughter as she fell asleep for the night. I had the sound off, heightening what I was seeing. I breathtaking drop away from a lefty. Precision to the corners. Soft contact (mostly). As it got later, I left my daughter's room to inform my wife of the situation developing. We turned on the game and watched it together. 

For one night, Kyle, and myself, got to pretend that this season hasn't been disappointing. For one night, my baseball world was perfect. Kyle was nearly perfect. And just like that, everything was right in my baseball world. 

Thank you for everything, regardless of where it goes from here, Kyle Hendricks. Go Cubs. Forever. 

3 Things Bothering Me about the 2023 Cubs

First of all, I hope you and yours enjoyed a long weekend with your friends, family, and loved ones. 

If you planned on using the Cubs to help yourself enjoy the unofficial kick-off to summer, you chose un-wisely. 

I am out of ideas. I am out of answers. I am frustrated. If you follow the Cubs at all on Twitter, you can feel the pulse of a fanbase that has struggled to accept what has happened the last few season. For those keeping score at home:

2016 - Pure euphoria in the highest order. 

2017-2019 - Weird versions of euphoria with a collapse mixed in

2020 - Covid

2021 - Last right of the WS core

2022 - Looking for margins to go right to compete, blows up in their face

2023 - Better version of looking to compete at the margins...blowing up in their face. 

Here are 3 things that are bothering me that I just don't have clean answers for. Whether we deserve them as fans is something else entirely. 

1.) Money

I am guilty of coming to the defense of this team often. I think the Ricketts family gets a bit TOO much heat (ducks aggressively). They have invested heavily into the ballpark and the surrounding area. I realize these are profitable ventures for them. However, I struggle to believe they thought the team would be what it is when they made those decisions. Throw a global pandemic on top of that, and I imagine they have eaten their fair share of expenses and loan obligations.

Let's not confuse these comments with sympathy. They have a lot of money. I think these loan obligations have had significant affect on the budget for baseball operations. After 2016, things got weird in roster construction. Large free agent contracts disappeared, causing Theo to spend farm assets to supplement a then flawed roster. That lead to a fork in the road: 

a.) extend a core that did not develop to what we thought they were and hamstring yourself financially to older players

b.) Rebuild as quick as possible to diminish the outrage and affect on game day revenue. 

We didn't love the answer. I agree it was the correct one (besides Rizzo potentially). 

Fast forward to the 2022 offseason. Jed spent. A LOT. Dansby, Taillon, Belli, and others. I remember prior to signing Dansby, I was worried we would miss out on the SS FA class altogether. There were rumors early on, including wild rumors, of the Cubs trying to land multiple SS. I am curious if the Cubs were trying to get Xander AND Dansby, but the Padres shocked with the length. 

Based on recent comments from Jed, I think he regrets not spending a bit more on a few relievers. 

This team needs a front end Starter, and some slugging. 3B is potentially a hole as well. It doesn't matter who is out there besides one player: Ohtani. Jeff Passan said recently that he doesn't know why he would pick the Cubs based on how things are right now. I would really like this front office to prove him wrong. 

Will the money be there? Per sportrac, the Cubs have projected Salary obligations of $159M with a Luxury tax cap of $237M. They have money to spend. 

2.) Roster Construction

I don't know where to begin. The April start made me believe this team could challenge the Cardinals, and entertain a playoff spot. At the beginning of May, we all saw 4 game versus the lowly Nationals, followed by a revenge tour against the Marlins. The Cubs looked lifeless and lost, with several games of small villages LOB at the hands of Eric Hosmer. 

I understood signing Mancini and Hosmer as "Mervis Insurance." It cost league minimum to get Hosmer, as the Padres are still playing him big boy money. 

Hosmer was bad. When they signed him, he was bad. He played bad. All the "under the hood numbers" were...bad. Yet on the roster he remained, batting commonly higher than 7. 

There are several of these players that have been fixtures to the team this year. Nick Madrigal. Edwin Rios being on the roster while not playing. Luis Torrens breaking camp.

Reaction: 

The Cubs have not shown urgency in addressing these issues. This statement I understand is a matter of opinion, as I will agree I can hear the sirens of the "Small Sample Size Police." 

Logic:

When REALLY pushed to think about it, there are not an abundance of options that are currently on the 40 man. Again, this does not excuse the Front Office from getting creative. I heard a lot about the "roster crunch" this offseason, but the Cubs did very little in addressing this issue prior to Opening Day, giving them tougher decisions on so many fringe options (McKinstry, Torrens, Hosmer).

3.) Lineups

David Ross isn't acting alone. If he is, we need to potentially have another discussion. Tauchman batted 3rd the other day. On Monday, the Cubs rolled out 3 rights vs Taj Bradley, who has extreme splits that favor righties. The Cubs won that game with only hits from their right handed hitters (Point Cubs). 

This might highlight a bigger issue that has reared its head that I ignored a bit this offseason: organizational depth. Can we be mad at these lineups? Yes we can, but I counter with the following: What is the better option?

I think a sign of our times is a constant barrage of finger pointing and frustration on issues, without ever really presenting reasonable solutions. When looking at the Cubs Triple-A roster, there are not any SURE FIRE replacements there. Nelson Velazquez is an interesting option with ML at bats, but I can agree a bit with the development angle for him. In addition, the Cubs have so many positions locked down, it leaves very few spots to really experiment. 

The Lineup card starts everyday (when everyone is healthy) with the following LOCKS:

Happer, 

Belli, 

Seiya, 

Swanson, 

Nico. 

That leaves versatility and platooning options at 1B, 3B, C, and DH. That feels like a lot, but it truly isn't. Patrick Wisdom is great in stretches (April), but can get exposed (May). I have seen so many grumbles about Mastrobouni, but his versatility is what can spell Wisdom. I do have a gripe of the Cubs not giving Morel a set position to start at AAA this season, but his approach has wild variety in need of addressing, too. 

All in all, the Cubs problems are not necessarily simple. Maybe we were all to excited when they started the way they did. National pundits have said this team is still a year away, and these depth issues potentially confirm that hypothesis. The 2023 Chicago Cubs are not a bad team, but the 2023 fan base is tired of rebuilds and waiting. The pressure is on the Northside. Does the front office/ownership feel it?

A Shot of Jameson - 3 Up, 3 Down

Friday night in Philly was fun. Lots of runs. Vintage Stro back on the bump. I felt joy again.

The following 48 hours of Cubs baseball posed more question than answers, and honestly dampened my spirits. I had been thinking of this season as a roller coaster, with dips and drops around the .500 mark. 

BleacherNation captured those feelings in this tweet:

Then a secondary tweet caught my eye:

If it weren’t for the Athletics embodying the plot to Major League to get to Vegas, the Cubs would have had the worst record in the last month. I know there are a lot of one run loses in there, but it never felt that bad.

Let’s check in on where we are:

Record: 20-26; 5 GB on the NLC

Up next: A much needed home stand vs the suddenly hotter Mets, the Reds, and Rays. 

3 Up:

1. Morel: My lord, is he en fuego. He is a full on conflagration.  If it feels like he has homered in every game, HE PRETTY MUCH HAS. In 11 games, he has 8 HRs with a 1.352 OPS. A lot of things I am reading on Twitter seems to be playing “What If” on the timing of his call-up. In a team hungry for slugging, he is exactly what they need right now. There are so many uncertainties in baseball, I generally try not to entertain these scenarios. It is much harder in this stretch of play to ignore it. 
2. Lt. Dansby: I will admit when I am wrong. I was low on Dansby this off-season given the crop of available shortstops. I new his glove was solid, and fell in love with the idea of his gap power at the Friendly Confines. If you take a look around, Dansby has been likely the best signing of that class. In fact,  he is near the top of baseball in total WAR at 2.2.
3. Man of Steele:  Looking at that WAR list, you will notice ANOTHER Cub featured. Justin has been phenomenal this year. Per his Baseball Savant page, he is in the 96th percentile in Avg. Exit Velocity and 97th in HardHit%. Justin has given up so little hard contact, and continues to manage this with a fastball and a several shapes slider. 

3 Down:

1. Taillon: Generally I don't advocate for "fake injuries," but it might be time for Taillon to get some time to work on mechanics. The early results looked ok with time to normalize as he got stretched out. I think we are seeing some issues with getting back into the swing of things after the injury. His past 50 PA have see his wOBA sky rocket. He still measures with elite fastball and curve spin. I am curious if the Cubs can get him a rehab start or two in a controlled setting to fix the mechanics. This team is dead in the water if he can't get right. 
2. Bullpen: I will put myself in the camp of folks who felt the Cub's pitching infrastructure had turned a corner with the emergence of Hughes, Roberts, Thompson, and Steele last year. In addition, the Cubs have had so much success in revitalizing and flipping veterans (Kimbrel, Robertson, Givens). Currently, the twitter-verse is calling for David Ross' job based on his attempts to manage a bullpen that has struggled. As mentioned on On to Waveland, the Cubs are getting aggressive with pitching prospects by moving them to bullpen roles. There could be options on the way that will hopefully rights the ship. 
3. Wisdom: This is a Patrick Wisdom Stan account. I absolutely adore the guy and what he brings to the table. He started the season Morel-level hot, but has cooled off significantly. He is in a tough stretch dating to the road trip that saw his K% at 56% with 2 doubles to his name. Madrigal remains on this roster to protect Wisdom from tougher matchups. However, Madrigal has not really been a solid replacement. I noticed Mastrobouni got the start there on Sunday. It will be interesting to see how the Cubs manage Wisdom's plate appearances going forward to get him right. 

Lastly, here are 3 baseball related things worth checking out that I enjoyed:

1. On to Waveland: If you are not listening to this podcast, you need to as soon as possible. This is my favorite Cubs podcast out there, as I adore Brett, Sahadev, and Patrick. Add it to your rotation today.
2. MLB The Show: I am a big baseball gamer, and this year's MLB the Show has been a ton of fun. I recently started a Cub's franchise to try out the new scouting system. I am pretty impressed with the level of detail in finding the next star for your team. 
3. Northside Bound: When the Cubs MLB team makes me sad, I like to read up on prospects to cheer me up. This is the place to go. Give Greg a follow on twitter as well!

I am hoping things get back on track this week. The Cubs are super fortunate that they are in a division that is not strong, and a stretch of solid play can fix this. 

3 Candors with CandidCubs on 5/11/2023

Hello! It has been a long time! 

I have found as the Cubs have returned to relevance, and my journey into baseball data have increased my need for a place for my thoughts. Here are a few things I am getting "candid" on:

• BleacherNation (my favorite Cubs content and it is not close) has a great article about their thoughts on Cubs broadcasts on Marquee.  I won't rehash what Michael discusses, but I think it is a great starting point on some of the gripes I have with the network. I still think the biggest issue is access, which I think will be solved in good time. 

• Is Justin Steele this teams ace? The argument can be made between him and Stroman in the early part of 2023, but Justin has felt like the classic "stopper." This is likely due to run support, as Stroman hasn't won his last 3 starts even with logging 3 QS. Boog/Girardi brought up an interest point on Justin Steele last evening: As a LHP, he seems to not face many lefties. I looked into that this morning and saw the sample size is pretty small, but they may be on to something. Justin has great Fastball command and is able to manipulate his pitches to get varying movement. His barrel rate is still elite, but in 2023, Lefties are hitting him slightly better. Recency bias of lefties in St. Louis' lineup squaring him up has me curious if his glove side run is harder to control. It will be something to see if there is an adjustments by the league. Justin hasn't looked totally locked in and the results are still excellent. I am sure the command on the arm-side fastball will be something he masters as he sees more lefties.

• I love having Christopher Morel back. His attitude, his bat, his versatility. *Chefs Kiss.* I think the Cubs are very lucky this division is not strong and have been able to give run to Hosmer and other veterans to get an idea of Roster construction moving forward. Yes, I did link Hosmer's Baseball Savant page. Yes, you should go look at why some line items are blue. Yes, you should see the concerning large amount of work that looks consistently bad. I will stop there, as I am hoping this is sorting itself out. 

- CandidCubs

 

 

 

State of the Cubbies - 5.10.16

I have been a Cubs fan my whole life (26 years and some change). I grew up during an era of the team in which I have seen more playoff births then most groups of die hards, but the learning curve of heartbreak was much quicker. '98, '03, '07,'08, and '15. Considering a ball club that has only seen 17 total playoff appearances in THEIR ENTIRE EXISTANCE, I should consider myself spoiled. 

I was in college for the Lou Pinella era. These two seasons were the height of my Cub delirium. I believed in curses, goats, Bartmans, etc. I took those playoff drubbings pretty hard. I started to feel hopeless. 

Then the ray of light that is the Theo Epstein era. Theo changed the way I looked at success and sustainability. While the Cardinals implored a model of player development and in-house solutions during the 2000's, I blindly was frustrated by the lack of "big splash' signings that were involving the North Siders. I had believed what the old regime wanted me to beleive: Success can be bought. 

I watched the Epstein era teams (pre-playoffs) with a new intensity. I was constantly looking for lightening in the bottle players to bring back exciting prospects to expedite the organizational growth that Theo/Jed sold like a beautiful dream. 

Last year was fun. I love the mantra that it was "a year early" since they came out of no where. The talent was there (or coming), but would they put it together?

Expectations could not be higher for this season. Everyone and their mother (Happy Mother's day to all the moms, btw) has picked this team to be a World Series contender. I have aged with the team and have found bliss in the "Try not to Suck" idea. 

Then they started like this. 24-6. Best start since 1907 (I believe a Chicago team won the World Series that year...). The hype train has turned into the hype bullet train. 

Starting Pitching - Lester, Hammel, Arrieta have 3 of the top 5 era's in the game. They are on a staff that has yet to have a starter to throw less than 5 innings this season. Jake has 1 no-hitter, and his command is not even close to what it was last year just yet. (Jake's walk rate per 9 is at 3, compared to 1.9 last season).

Offense - ON BASE. ON BASE. ON BASE. If you look up and down this line up, there are 1 or 2 batting averages that jump out as solid (Rizzo had a slow start due to lousy BABIP, Heyward has been hampered with a wrist injury). However, this team continues to take its walks. Hits can come in go in a game where failure happens to the greats 70% of the time, but approach stays constant. The drop in strike out rate so far in Russell and Bryant has been unreal. The Cubs were last in the majors last year, improving to a shocking degree. 

It is exciting to be on the North Side this year. Stay calm and enjoy the ride. As Joe Maddon would say "It's a beautiful thing, man."

Home Opener - An opener of my perspective

This is the view of my section. I am so excited to sitting in those green beauties once again (Well, 2 rows closer than last year 😍). 

I don't know if it is just me, but I am trying really hard not to overdue my excitement just yet. Lots of expectations, predictions,  etc. No, I am not selling out to some curse theory, hoax, hex, or such either. As I have gotten older, I have grown more in love with this game, while growing in understanding the nuances that make it go. With a grueling 162 game season ahead, so many things can happen. 

I love the early season storylines of who is good, who is bad. I had a a conversation this past Friday with a Cardinals fan who was POUNDING the panic button as his team stumbled in their opening series to the Pirates. Trevor Story is on pace to hit over 250 Home Runs. Currently, I am watching the "rebuilding" Reds no-hit our heroes in the bottom of the 5th. 

What I am trying to say, make sure to take some time to enjoy the present. Baseball is a beautiful game with nuances that take a detail mind to find. So let's enjoy this ride. Oh, and Go Cubs! 
 

Do YOU trade Castro?

Starlin Castro. This name spurs lots of different emotions amongst Cub fans. Some think of his amazing debut in Cincinnati (http://youtu.be/goeN5G7G6S4 ). Others remember his frustrating mental lapses... http://youtu.be/DEYHRKVJTiU

Ultimately, it is hard to deny the talent he has at the plate. Additionally, this season has been much improved on the field as well. With a month left in the season, Starlin is on pace to be well below his 25 error per season career average.

But the hitting talent....

It is pretty good. Pretty damn good. Even with the hiccup season, Starlin is averaging 184 hits in his first 3 full major league seasons. If he maintains that pace and plays the same number of seasons as Jeter, he would finish his career at 3,318, could for top 10 of all time.

So why the hell would we trade him? 

Let us look at the current situation with our lovely North Side friends. With a clear turn for the better coming sooner than skeptics believed (CoughNOTMECough), there is valor in shopping a bit. The Cubs picked up future stud Addison Russell from the A's, who looks like a natural at Short. Starlin is playing way above his contract value, since he signed a very friendly deal not to long in the past. With this deal and additional team control on the table, the Cubs can get good return. Additionally, with teams like the Mets loaded with young pitching AND hungry for a shortstop. Seems like a natural fit. 

For the right return, the Cubs should keep there ears open, but maybe the projection of the Hall ringing will be enough music to calm the front office. For now.

The Beginning

The day most Cub fans have been waiting for is finally here: Javier Baez is coming to the MLB!

My immediate reaction is similar to this child here: http://youtu.be/pFlcqWQVVuU 

After a horrendous start, Baez has really turn it on, bringing his average up to .260  with 23 bombs. His upside is known. He is the prospect every fan has come to know. The worry is balancing realistic expectation and hype. 

Baez is a true talent, but there are some trends that need to be addressed in order to temper the excitement:

- Baez has a career MiLB K ratio of 28%, which is still 3% higher than being consider 'awful' (http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/rate-stats/). Baez has a quick and powerful swing, but this comes with some consequences. It would be fair to say he could struggle after the initial call up. For this reason, it is good to call him up now to get the test drive out of the way. He has shown the resilience to make adjustments and work hard. 

- Career MiLB fielding percentage of .944. For a comparison, Starlin Castro has a career percentage of .963. The glove leaves something to be desired, but Second base may be a great place to stick him. 

- Javy is 21 YEARS OLD. If he doesn't not look like Dereck Jeter in his first month, give him a break. Players are not considered in their prime until their late 20's. Mike Trout is the exception, not the rule.

Now that the ground rules are set, it is time for is to enjoy the clear start of the next stage of Cubs Baseball. Welcome, and enjoy. Oh, let's also start watching the #BAEZBOMBS 

Hope...a forgotten 4 letter word

Let's be honest. A realistic minded person did not see the Cubs competing for anything more than moving out of the cellar of the division. The team at times has been frustrating, the culmination of the frustration resolving in the outright release of Jose Veras.

With all the negative feelings towards this Chicago team, let's focus on positives. 

1.) Castro/Rizzo: Rick Renteria was brought in to change tha atmosphere and attitude of the Major League club. Additionally, it can be argued he has been brought in to help Castro. Up to this point in the season, he is doing the Job. Castro looks more and more comfortable at Short as the year goes on. His batting average isn't turning heads, but it is a HUGE improvement over last year. Letting Starlin do his thing seems to be the answer, for the hits and some flashes of that power have returned. Rizzo is in the conversation for the All-Stat game. After struggling against Lefties last year, Rizzo is putting up video game numbers this year. Things are looking up for the core.

2.) Minor League Development - Kris Bryant. Just reading his name brings chills to ever pitcher in AA. Bryant is enjoying a monster season this year, leading ever Triple Crown Category by a decent margin. Javier Baez is also turning his season around at AAA. His batting average is up to .234 after a very rough start to the season.

I understand Cub fans eagerness to see these guys at the big league level, but there is no need to rush them in order to bring in fans. Baez needs to work on the 30% K rate. Bryant may be a hitting machine, but a decision needs to be made what position he wants to play. With Renteria playing match ups and rotating a long bench at the MLB, Bryant and Baez can continue to benefit with everyday play. 

3.) Rennovations- Even with new obstacles and delays, this project is happening and it WILL have a great effect on the team. After touring the Wrigley facilities my self this past fall, saying upgraded player facilities is needed is the understatement of the Millenium. Let's get this going.

162 games. That's how many these guys get to play. With recent improved play and offensive execution (7-3 in their last 10), this team is better to watch then in years past. The change is coming. And it will likely be everything we hoped for.

Til next time Vine Lovers,

CC

http://mlb.mlb.com/r/video?content_id=33608083

http://mlb.mlb.com/r/video?content_id=33579895

Game 2

0-2. Not a start a starved fan base wants. Thank god for the fact that this team has 160 games left this season. And now the pros and cons list of game 2:

Pros:

*Rizzo - Even with a 1-9 start to the season, last night was some progress. He is taking better at bats. That late inning sequence in which he battled to 3-2, to take an inside pitch yard was a look of a more mature Rizzo. I am liking the set hand position in his swing's pre-load, more opportunity to square up the ball with less dancing around.

*Bonifacio - Beyond the pickoffs (so frustrating), he has been a nice early surprise. Two 4 hit games already this season with a .750 BA. I like what he brings to the top of the lineup. 

*Jackson - It wasn't the prettiest start, but there were some bright spots. He battled for 5.1 innings for 5Ks, 4B, and scattered 2 hits with 1 ER. He worked his way into trouble a few times, but made good pitches to get out of some bad situations. 

Cons:

*The Lineup - I do NOT like Castro in the 3 hole. Castro was out a few weeks with the Hamstring injury and his timing may be a little off. That is not the description of a player that I want in the 3 spot of the lineup. Additionally, I do not like having Olt on the squad just to bench him game 2. There may be some resting strategies at play due to that shoulder soreness he was dealing with this spring. That being said, the Cubs lineup is better with Olt protecting Rizzo in the lineup. I think the best options for 1-2 in the lineup are Bonifacio and Castro. Castro is a contact hitter with some legs. The hit and run potential with those two makes me excited. 

*RISP - 1 for 27 after two games. This team is starved for a big hit. I am looking to Rizzo, Olt and Castro to step up as leaders for these situations. The silver lining is that this is a series Vs. a team that won over 90 games last year due to there solid staff and bullpen. 

Coming up next!

Jason Hammel in his Cub debut vs. Wandy Rodriguez at 11:35 Ct. 

-CC

Opening Day

It's here. After a long few weeks of training camps, the games begin to count!! 

I don't know about you Cub fans, but I am excited for 2014. Yes, EXCITED. I think we can chalk that up to about a 50/50 split between brainwashed optimism and nostalgia. 

I'll calm down just a second to address my point: the 2014 Cubs are something to be excited about. Here's why:

1.) New Management: 

I don't have anything personal against Dale Svuem, but I am glad to see him gone. He was handed a tough situation and did not contribute anything to at least keep the ship afloat. So now we turn to Rick Renteria, ex-Padres bench coach, to man the helm. He brings a new attitude and a fresh look that focuses on developing talent at the Major League level. Many players have commented on his great attitude and the change in the overall atmosphere, but that is all talk. Time to take Ricky to the park and see what he can do.

2.) Rizzo and Castro:

There are not two Cubs happier that there is a new season. After what was noticeable regression in '13, these players are starved for a opportunity to prove they are better than last year. Castro came into camp healthier (until the injury) and with a new attitude. Rizzo has worked with new hitting coach Bill Mueller on taking the movement out of his approach. Can these guys get back to form? 

3.) The kids are coming...

If you have been living under a rock, let's bring you up to speed: Javier Baez had a great spring. Even though he is starting the year at Triple-A, he is knocking on the door of a call up. Kyle Hendricks is waiting in the wings as well. He had what Rick Sutcliffe described as the "it" factor. That future that Theo and Jed tell is about. It is almost here.

4.) "Happy birthday to...

Wrigley! On April 23, Wrigley Field turns 100 years old and the marketing team has a bunch of decade themed promotions at the park all season. That alone is worth the price of admission.

So sit back. Relax. Turn on that familiar WGN broadcast (potentially for the last year) and enjoy the thing we love through and through: The Cubs. It's a new year, and baseball is beautifully unpredictable. For that alone, it is good to be back home.

-CC