What would an Ohtani trade to the Cubs look like?

 

The trade deadline is coming and it is one of my favorite times of year, regardless of the Cubs standing. Every year, a big name or two lights up a market like the NYC Christmas tree as speculation and scenarios engulf in a conflagration of euphoria, jealousy, and daydreams. I very much like taking part. 

Trades and their excitement are good for baseball. This year, the best player on the planet could become available. The Angels have suffered many injuries and are beginning to fall out of the West race

Trades to look at...I guess:

Machado to the Dodgers, 2018

 

In 2018, the world new Manny was not going to be an Oriole. There was not much public discussion of traction on a massive extension, and doubt spread given the Orioles recent play and lack of a track record committing the level of money needed for Manny. 

Player Value:

Machado in 2018 was having an EXCELLENT first half. The 25 year old had a .315 BA, .963 OPS with 24 HRs and 65 RBI. 

Manny started playing in 2012 and had already had 3 top 10 MVP finishes, 2 gold gloves, and was just selected to his 4th All Star game. 

Manny currently has 53.5 WAR through 12 seasons of play, tied as the 8th most valuable active player

Prospect Package:

1.) Yusniel Diaz, OF (11), 20 years old

2.) Dean Kremer, RHP, 22 years old

3.) Rylan Bannon, 3B , 22 years old

4.) Zach Pop, RHP, 22 years old

5.) Breyvic Valera, 3B (21), 26 years old

At the time, that seemed like a huge package for a playoff piece. Fangraphs had them at 11, 21 in the top 23, with the others unrated. 

New Contract:

Manny Machado did not stay in LA, selecting the surprising (at the time) 11 year, $350M offering from San Diego. That "CBA" math AAV turned out to be a sweet deal, giving him plenty of ammo for his opt out/extension deal from this spring. 

Juan Soto to the Padres, 2022

The Nationals were unable to pull of an extension as talks broke down with the player. Even with a few years left until free agency, it had become clear it was time to move on. The fear of no return, as they got with Bryce Harper, loomed large. 

Player Value:

What is a comp for a guy under 23 with the seasons he had put up? "Childish Bambino" was 19 when he was called up, and put up an amazing rookie campaign, coming in 2nd in ROY honors to some guy named Ronald Acuna Jr. He has a CAREER OBP of .423 with a CAREER OPS of .943. In that short time, he was a 3 time Silver Slugger, 3 time Top-10 MVP vote getter, with 2 All Star Game elections. 

As mentioned, Juan had 2 1/2 years of control when dealt. His deal had the expiring contract of Josh Bell as well.  

Prospect Package:

1.) CJ Abrams, SS, 20 years Old (1 in Padres, 9 in MLB)

2.) Mackenzie Gore, LHP, 22 years old (4 in Padres)

3.) Robert Hassell III, OF (2 in Padres, 21 in MLB)

4.) James Wood, OF (3 in Padres)

5.) Jarlin Susana, RHP (14 in Padres)

6.) Luke Voit, 1B, MLB

This package is huge, and absolutely needed given the talent involved. Leave it to AJ Preller to make deals. I am sure this still has it's naysayers, but the large amount of high end talent is hard to ignore. They received two MLB caliper players so far, with Wood, Hassell III, and Jarlin still top 10 organizational talent in recent prospect rankings. Wood and Hassell still fall on Top 150 propects in baseball as well. (Fangraphs)

CC Sabathia to Milwaukee, 2008

 

This trade really sticks out to me as getting the most bang for your prospect buck. CC was HIM (I feel old typing that) after the trade.  He was having a good year in 2008, but really took it to another level in the NL. 

Player Value:

Take a look at these splits:

With Cleveland: 6-8, 18 Starts, 3.83 ERA, 122.1 IP, 123 SOs

With Milwaukee: 11-2, 17 Starts, 1.65 ERA, 130.2 IP, 128 SOs

Let's not forget he threw 7 complete games, 3 of them shut outs. Unbelievable.

Prior to that, he was "just" a 27 year old with 4 15+ win seasons, 3 All Star games, and a 2007 Cy Young award. 

Prospect Package:

1.) Zach Jackson (NR)

2.) Matt LaPorta, LF, 23 years old (2 in Brewers)

3.) Rob Bryson (11 in Brewers)

4.) PTBNL who turned into Michael Brantley (NR)

The story of this trade is a typical baseball trade. LaPorta garnered all of the attention given the pedigree at the time. He never panned out, only getting 967 MLB ABs. The irony is how great the Michael Brantley acquisition looked. 

A note: Baseball is weird. Baseball is hard. I always try to remember that everyone involved in these deals have both more minor league and major league at bats than I do. 

New Contract:

CC never played for the Brew Crew again, signing a 7 year, $161M deal with the Yankees after that season. 

Justin Verlander to Houston, 2017

This trade makes my heart hurt, as he really wanted to be here in 2017. Oh, what could have been.

Player Value:

I was curious how this guy would age. I am sure the Cubs were as well. However, this guy has been a stud, and continued to do so for Houston, trash cans and no trash cans. 

Up to the age 34 seasons, Verlander had won ROY, Cy Young and MVP in 2011, then a pedestrian 7 additional  top 11 Cy Young finishes and 4 MVP Top 20 finishes. 

Prospect Package:

1.) Daz Cameron, OF, 20 years Old (10 in Astros)

2.) Franklin Perez, RHP, 19 years Old (3 in Astros) 

3.) Jake Rogers, C, 21 years old (NR in Astros)

Daz has not panned out. Jake Rogers is a back-up catcher. Franklin never pitched in the MLB. Pretty high cost for the Tigers who wanted to rebuild and shed salary. 

New Contract:

The Astros went on to take the remaining 2 1/2 years of his deal, with the Tigers throwing in $8M of the total $28M owed in the last 2 full seasons. Since, he made $81M on a deal with the Astros for 3 years. This offseason, he signed a 2 year, $86M contract with the Mets, who recently were fitted for rings for winning the Offseason. 

The Cubs Package for Ohtani

There is not an exact comp. Ohtani the most special player to play in this generation. The length of time he will be able to do this will redefine expectations and set unreachable bars for the rest of time. 

These sentences are not ridiculous or hyperbole. We simply have not seen this before. Here is how I am assessing the market for Ohtani.

The Market

Buster Olney is proclaiming the Yankees will do whatever it takes to get him at the deadline. I don't see that making a ton of sense. My "logical brain" says an in-season move like this makes the most sense for teams in search of the "final piece" to jump their strong roster. My comp is the Cubs getting Chapman in 2016. The cost was high, but the piece was perfect. 

Looking at the playoff teams right now, the Rays, Orioles, Rangers, Astros, Braves, Reds, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Giants are teams with current records and a place in the standings that would see a huge jump in World Series futures by adding Ohtani. Of these teams, 6 have top 10 farm systems per Fangraphs. 

Of that group, I would probably rank the Dodgers and Giants as the most dangerous to re-sign him post trade. The Giants famously almost signed everyone this offseason, including Aaron Judge's brother, Arson:

first-ballot Hall of Fame tweet just dropped pic.twitter.com/G8MVkhr89Y

— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) December 6, 2022

The Cubs would need to beat packages put together by these west coast squads. I understand the timing isn't wonderful competition wise for the Cubs, but the negotiation advantage is worth the price (if it is 100% the intent of this Front Office to sign him). 

The Package

 Looking at the examples above, it seems like a good place to start is with two top 10 organization prospects (with MLB rank) for Hitter Ohtani. Pitcher Ohtani would add 2 more prospects. The Angels could try to swing a deal for some younger ML talent to supplement Trout with, as their financials may limit big swings in free agency. This organization is also hungry for pitching, which has seemed like their achilles heal in the Trout years. An avenue worth exploring is any opportunity to help the Angels unload a large contract. Specifically, Anthony Rendon. Ironically, this could help the Cubs 3B issues in the short term. 

Names I float as the Cubs

James Triantos (2 in Cubs): 20 years old at Single A. Walks more than he strikes out. High OBP and contact. 

Christopher Morel (MLB): I love Morel. Currently, he is positionless as he works out some defensive issues. His value can come from versatility. The Angels may value a player that has seen success in the Majors. This does reduce some risk on the return. 

Kevin Alcantara, (4 in Cubs): 21 years old at Single A as well. The Jaguar is exciting, but contracts lock up the Cubs outfield for a few years. This is not a problem until it is a problem. The logic here is the surplus and the rank. 

Hayden Wesneski (MLB): Wesneski has had some decent time in the Majors. It has become apparent he needs a bit more command on a 3rd pitch to help neutralize lefties. When the sweeper/slider is working, he is great. He could start in that rotation ASAP. 

The Deal

Completed using baseballtradevalues.com

Selfishly, I stayed away from names like PCA or Horton. Prospects are NEVER guarantees, but I really like what I saw in those guys. The influx of college talent may help elevate names on this list in the coming season as well. This deal helps the Cubs get the unicorn and keep the cupboard filled with pieces. I think about salary-eating potential for Brandon Drury/Anthony Rendon that can lower the prospect price. 

All in, the Cubs should only do this if they can negotiate and sign a contract. Their World Series window is not now, but landing a guy like this when Marquee is adding in-market streaming, Wrigley is opening a sports book, and marketing is beginning for 2024 feels extremely advantageous for business folk and fans alike. 

What do you think?

A Shot of Jameson - 3 Up, 3 Down

Friday night in Philly was fun. Lots of runs. Vintage Stro back on the bump. I felt joy again.

The following 48 hours of Cubs baseball posed more question than answers, and honestly dampened my spirits. I had been thinking of this season as a roller coaster, with dips and drops around the .500 mark. 

BleacherNation captured those feelings in this tweet:

Then a secondary tweet caught my eye:

If it weren’t for the Athletics embodying the plot to Major League to get to Vegas, the Cubs would have had the worst record in the last month. I know there are a lot of one run loses in there, but it never felt that bad.

Let’s check in on where we are:

Record: 20-26; 5 GB on the NLC

Up next: A much needed home stand vs the suddenly hotter Mets, the Reds, and Rays. 

3 Up:

1. Morel: My lord, is he en fuego. He is a full on conflagration.  If it feels like he has homered in every game, HE PRETTY MUCH HAS. In 11 games, he has 8 HRs with a 1.352 OPS. A lot of things I am reading on Twitter seems to be playing “What If” on the timing of his call-up. In a team hungry for slugging, he is exactly what they need right now. There are so many uncertainties in baseball, I generally try not to entertain these scenarios. It is much harder in this stretch of play to ignore it. 
2. Lt. Dansby: I will admit when I am wrong. I was low on Dansby this off-season given the crop of available shortstops. I new his glove was solid, and fell in love with the idea of his gap power at the Friendly Confines. If you take a look around, Dansby has been likely the best signing of that class. In fact,  he is near the top of baseball in total WAR at 2.2.
3. Man of Steele:  Looking at that WAR list, you will notice ANOTHER Cub featured. Justin has been phenomenal this year. Per his Baseball Savant page, he is in the 96th percentile in Avg. Exit Velocity and 97th in HardHit%. Justin has given up so little hard contact, and continues to manage this with a fastball and a several shapes slider. 

3 Down:

1. Taillon: Generally I don't advocate for "fake injuries," but it might be time for Taillon to get some time to work on mechanics. The early results looked ok with time to normalize as he got stretched out. I think we are seeing some issues with getting back into the swing of things after the injury. His past 50 PA have see his wOBA sky rocket. He still measures with elite fastball and curve spin. I am curious if the Cubs can get him a rehab start or two in a controlled setting to fix the mechanics. This team is dead in the water if he can't get right. 
2. Bullpen: I will put myself in the camp of folks who felt the Cub's pitching infrastructure had turned a corner with the emergence of Hughes, Roberts, Thompson, and Steele last year. In addition, the Cubs have had so much success in revitalizing and flipping veterans (Kimbrel, Robertson, Givens). Currently, the twitter-verse is calling for David Ross' job based on his attempts to manage a bullpen that has struggled. As mentioned on On to Waveland, the Cubs are getting aggressive with pitching prospects by moving them to bullpen roles. There could be options on the way that will hopefully rights the ship. 
3. Wisdom: This is a Patrick Wisdom Stan account. I absolutely adore the guy and what he brings to the table. He started the season Morel-level hot, but has cooled off significantly. He is in a tough stretch dating to the road trip that saw his K% at 56% with 2 doubles to his name. Madrigal remains on this roster to protect Wisdom from tougher matchups. However, Madrigal has not really been a solid replacement. I noticed Mastrobouni got the start there on Sunday. It will be interesting to see how the Cubs manage Wisdom's plate appearances going forward to get him right. 

Lastly, here are 3 baseball related things worth checking out that I enjoyed:

1. On to Waveland: If you are not listening to this podcast, you need to as soon as possible. This is my favorite Cubs podcast out there, as I adore Brett, Sahadev, and Patrick. Add it to your rotation today.
2. MLB The Show: I am a big baseball gamer, and this year's MLB the Show has been a ton of fun. I recently started a Cub's franchise to try out the new scouting system. I am pretty impressed with the level of detail in finding the next star for your team. 
3. Northside Bound: When the Cubs MLB team makes me sad, I like to read up on prospects to cheer me up. This is the place to go. Give Greg a follow on twitter as well!

I am hoping things get back on track this week. The Cubs are super fortunate that they are in a division that is not strong, and a stretch of solid play can fix this. 

Twin Killing

 I hope you had wonderful Mother's Day activities. Moms are such a big part of our world, so I hope you took care of them yesterday.

The Cubs, on the other hand, got taken care of...

Let's do a check in on the standings and a 3 up, 3 down of our beloved Northsiders:

Standings

Record: 19-21; 4 GB of the Brewers, Too early to look at WC standings

Run differential: +29

Interesting stats of note:

• Cubs are 2nd in the league in Team OBP at .340. Going into the 2023 season, I was concerned about the Cub's ability to Slug. The stats tell the story that are eyes are seeing: The Cubs are getting a lot of traffic on the bases, but are not getting a large amount of extra base hits. Slugging is at .425, which is good for 8th in the league. 
• Pitching stats tell a very similar story. After a...rough weekend on the mound, the Cubs are middle of the pack in team ERA. One thing I found interesting is the Cubs WHIP and BAA stats. They are a top 5 team in both, which would show pretty limited base runners. The difference with this Cub staff is the lack of strike outs. In a simple stats way of looking at this, the more randomness of a ball in play introduced vs a Strike out, the higher likelihood of runs, hits, action. 

If I was honest with myself to start this season, this teams lack of power pitching and power bats was a concern for a legitimate division run. I am very interested if these stats will improve in any way, or if this is the teams identity. 

3 Up...

1. Christopher Morel: There is no reason for him to go back down once Nico is healthy. He OBLITERATED 2 baseballs this weekend, and is a plug-n-play glove. His defense is serviceable all over the field and has a plus-arm. 
2. Seiya Suzuki: Seiya did not get the benefit of a full spring this year with the oblique issue. He came into camp look like a beast, having added muscle and some pop in early games. He has been pretty solid with Hard Hit rate, with launch angle being an issue. It was nice to see some XBH this weekend. He had a nice series with 1.083 OPS for the weekend with a 108MPH line drive HR on Sunday. Hopefully this is a sign of some more slug to come. 
3. Drew Smyly: That Unicorn Curveball is a thing of beauty. He is a quality start machine. Every competitive team needs a bunch of innings eaters, and he has been more than that. Based on this barrel % chart, he has been hard to square up. (Not quite Justin Steele ELITE, but still great)

3 down...

1. Holy strikeouts, Batman!: The Cubs faced a tough test with Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan this weekend, who have been excellent for the Twinkies so far this year. They did a solid job of getting Sonny's pitch count up on Friday, but the overall results were not great. Cubs are mid-pack in strikeout rate at 22.6%. However, they struck out at a 30.4% clip this weekend. Not ideal. 
2. Hayden Wesneski: I was curious how the Cubs were going to find starts for Kyle Hendricks after his rehab outings (Another good one for him at Iowa yesterday) Hayden was the clear 5th starter out of camp, but really needs some runway at Iowa to develop a 3rd pitch. His fastball command has not been as great at times, and the hard hit rate signals some pitch sequencing and location issues. 
3. Roster construction: I am growing tired of a sub-optimal roster. Looking at the standings, the Cubs have opportunities to sneak into the playoffs with the right stretch of play, as it is only May. HOWEVER, I see some opportunities to maximize this roster. It is time to bring some of the fun arms with high velo up from Iowa (Cam Sanders, Manny Rodriguez) to replace Boxberger at minimum. Finding at bats for Eric Hosmer should stop. Nick Madrigal should not be platooning Patrick Wisdom. When Nico comes back, that should be Morel. I get we need some more opportunities for Barnhart, but I was super impressed with Amaya in his tryout. He had a REALLY nice day at Iowa yesterday (Look at the box score linked earlier.)

Here is hoping for a better week. Cubbies in Houston starting tonight. 

3 Candors with CandidCubs on 5/11/2023

Hello! It has been a long time! 

I have found as the Cubs have returned to relevance, and my journey into baseball data have increased my need for a place for my thoughts. Here are a few things I am getting "candid" on:

• BleacherNation (my favorite Cubs content and it is not close) has a great article about their thoughts on Cubs broadcasts on Marquee.  I won't rehash what Michael discusses, but I think it is a great starting point on some of the gripes I have with the network. I still think the biggest issue is access, which I think will be solved in good time. 

• Is Justin Steele this teams ace? The argument can be made between him and Stroman in the early part of 2023, but Justin has felt like the classic "stopper." This is likely due to run support, as Stroman hasn't won his last 3 starts even with logging 3 QS. Boog/Girardi brought up an interest point on Justin Steele last evening: As a LHP, he seems to not face many lefties. I looked into that this morning and saw the sample size is pretty small, but they may be on to something. Justin has great Fastball command and is able to manipulate his pitches to get varying movement. His barrel rate is still elite, but in 2023, Lefties are hitting him slightly better. Recency bias of lefties in St. Louis' lineup squaring him up has me curious if his glove side run is harder to control. It will be something to see if there is an adjustments by the league. Justin hasn't looked totally locked in and the results are still excellent. I am sure the command on the arm-side fastball will be something he masters as he sees more lefties.

• I love having Christopher Morel back. His attitude, his bat, his versatility. *Chefs Kiss.* I think the Cubs are very lucky this division is not strong and have been able to give run to Hosmer and other veterans to get an idea of Roster construction moving forward. Yes, I did link Hosmer's Baseball Savant page. Yes, you should go look at why some line items are blue. Yes, you should see the concerning large amount of work that looks consistently bad. I will stop there, as I am hoping this is sorting itself out. 

- CandidCubs